Crop condition in Iran was generally below average over the reporting period. During this time, winter wheat was still growing, and barley was harvested. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, -9%), temperature (TEMP, -0.6°C), and radiation (RADPAR, -1%) were below average, leading to a decrease in the BIOMSS index by 7% compared to previous years. The national average of the maximum VCI index was 0.5, while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) significantly decreased by 19 percentage points compared to the five-year average. The available information implies that crop phenology for winter wheat is likely delayed due to the unfavorable weather conditions.  

From February to April, crop condition was below average almost across the country, in an area accounting for 89.7% of total arable land. Areas with above average condition are mainly distributed in Hormozgan province and surrounding regions. In West Azerbaijan, Kermanshah, and Golstan provinces, condition of crops was even below the five-year average over the entire period. In the East Azerbaijan, IIam, Luristan, and Bushehr provinces, crop condition was below average from January to March, but recovered to average in April.

Overall, winter crop condition in Iran has not been favorable over the monitoring period. Due to the crop phenology change, the final outcome of winter wheat in Iran depends on weather and crop conditions in the next few months.

Figure 3.18. Iran crop condition, January-April 2017

(a)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                       (b)Maximum VCI

(c)       Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and the coresponding NDVI departure profiles