In Mexico, maize, sorghum, and rice for the spring to summer season have been harvested during late January and early February this year, while winter crops—maize, sorghum, and wheat—have been growing since February. During the current monitoring period, according to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, crop condition was generally below average with increasing departures over time.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that rainfall (RAIN) dropped 9% below average, while temperature (TEMP) and radiation (RADPAR) increased by 0.4°C and 3%, respectively. The resulting biomass production potential (BIOMSS) was 3% below average. The maximum VCI at the national level was 0.72, with lower values located in central and southern Mexico, such as in the states of Zacatecas, Aquascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacan, Mexico, Tiaxcala, Morelos, Puebla, and Guerrero. In contrast, high values of maximum VCI occur in eastern Mexico, including Veracruz, Tobasco, and Oaxaca states. As shown by the map of spatial NDVI patterns and corresponding profiles, 51.4% of planted areas in the country experienced generally below average condition at the end of the reporting period, with these areas mainly located in Zacatecas, Aquascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacan, Guerrero, Campeche, and Yucatan, which agrees well with the pattern of lower VCIx values. Favorable crop condition occurred in Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Tobasco.

Based on the above analysis and the fact that the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) is 3 percentage points over average, crops yields for Mexico’s current season are estimated to be slightly below average.

Figure 3.21 Mexico crop condition, January-April 2017

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                        (b) Maximum VCI

(c) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (d) NDVI profiles