Overall favorable agro-climatic conditions benefited winter crops resulting in a 2.2% increase of winter wheat yield at national level. Winter wheat production is forecast at 116 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons or 1.7% up from 2016’s output (table 4.2). The total planted area is 23548 thousand hectares, 2% down from 2016. GaoFen-1 (GF-1) satellite data show  that the planted area decreased by 7.8% in Anhui (mostly in the centre-east of the province)  and 4.6% in Jiangsu (mostly in the centre-west), which is equivalent to 299 thousand hectares in two major wheat producing areas (Figure 4.xx). Arable land that is uncropped in early 2017 is indicated in illustrated in figure 4.3. According to information from China Meteorological Administration, the large decrease resulted from unsuitable weather during the planting window in October to November 2016. Even if the winter wheat yield increased in Anhui and Jiangsu, wheat production still decreased by 5.2% and 1.9% compared with 2016. Other provinces with large production decrease includes Hubei (-1.1%,due to both decreased planted area and yield), Chongqing (-1.9% because of decreased yield) and Shaanxi (-4.2%, due to both decreased planted area and yield). Yield increased in Hebei (+4.0%), Shanxi (+5.7%), Shandong (+3.3%) and Henan (+3.9%)

Figure4.xx. Large difference from high resolution images in central Anhui in 2016 (left) and 2017 (right). Imagery from GF-1 16m resolution data. Blue circles delineate areas where winter crops were cultivated in 2016 (shown in red) while bare fields are observed in 2017 (shown in white).

Figure 4.xx. winter crops planted area in 2017 and the changes from 2016 based on 16m GF-1 imagery

Table 4.2. China, 2017 winter wheat area, yield, and production and percentage difference with 2017, by province

Note:* National total production does not include Taiwan province.

Winter wheat represents almost 91% of the total output for winter crops in China. For 2017, CropWatch puts the total winter crop production at 126 million tons, a 1.3 percent increase from the 2016’s low production (table 4.3). Due to the low income from for rapeseed cultivation and unfavorable climatic conditions during the planting window, the total planted area dropped by 0.8% compared to 2016. The most significant decrease of planted area occurred in Shanxi (-3.1%), Jiangsu (-6%), Anhui (-5.1%) and Shaanxi (-3.3%). Yield nevertheless increased by 2.1% at national level thanks to favorable climatic condition. Total winter crop output is estimated to increase from last year’s low output in most provinces except for Hubei (-0.2%), Shaanxi (-1.5%), and Gansu (-0.5%).

However, considering the relatively severe impacts from pest and diseases, production of winter wheat and total winter crops could be lower at final estimates. CropWatch will continue monitor the crop condition and provide updates in future bulletins.

 Table 4.3. China, 2017 winter crops production (thousand tons) and percentage difference with 2016, by province

Note: *National total production does not include Taiwan province.