4.5 China food imports and exports outlook for 2017

Analysis of food import and export in the first quarter of 2017

Wheat

Wheat imports for China in the first quarter of 2017 reached 1.0798 million tons, an increase of 91.7% over the same period the previous year. Main sources of imported wheat were Australia (57.9% of total imports), the United States (26.7%), Kazakhstan (8.1%), and Canada (6.8%); the total value of the wheat imports amounted to US$ 227 million. Exports (21,100 tons) went mainly to Hong Kong and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, which received respectively 79.7% and 12.6% of the total, the value of which amounted to US$ 11 million.

Rice

In the first quarter, 0.871 million tons of rice were imported, which was 3.0% less than the year before. The main sources of imported rice were Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan (accounting for 48.3%, 30.3%, and 11.0% of China’s total rice imports, respectively), for a total value of US$ 412 million. Rice exports (0.2044 million tons worth US$ 119 million) went mainly to the Republic of Korea, Côte d'Ivoire, and Mozambique, respectively accounting for 34.0%, 22.6%, and 10.8% of exported rice.

Maize

China imported 306.6 thousand tons of maize in the first quarter, 52.5% less than the year before. The main sources of imports were Ukraine and the United States, respectively accounting for 93.6% and 5% of the total. The imports amounted to US$ 67 million in total. Exports were 1,344.85 tons (US$ 0.2978 million), of which most went to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (94.5% of total exports). 

Soybean

In the first quarter, soybean imports were 19.5195 million tons, up 20.0%, mainly from the United States and Brazil (79.0% and 13.8%). The value of imports amounted to US$ 8,453 billion. Soybean exports were 32,500 tons, up 7.3%.

2017 prospects for imported food staples in China

The projections below are based on 2016-2017 global crop monitoring based on remote sensing data and a simulation model that takes into account major shocks and policies (based on the standard GTAP model).

• Wheat. China’s wheat imports are estimated to grow 4.5%, while wheat exports will fall 10.2% in 2017. Although differences in the quality of wheat continued to exist in the world, domestic high-quality wheat production prospects were positively influenced by structural changes on the supply side. Overall, wheat imports are stable with a slight increase in 2017.

• Rice. In 2017, rice imports are expected to increase 8.7%, and exports will increase 1.5%. At present, domestic and foreign price differentials continue to exist; as a result, rice imports are predicted to continue an increase, but still within the quotas.

• Maize. Imports of the crop are expected to drop 30.6%, while exports of maize will increase 12.6%. The supply and demand situation of domestic maize is still loose, and maize imports are restricted.

• Soybean. In 2017, soybean imports are expected to increase 1.2%, while exports decrease 2.8%. Due to planting structure adjustment policies and low maize production, a growth in soybean import seems unlikely and soybean imports are expected to remain low in 2017.