5.1 CropWatch food production estimates

Methodological introduction

Table 5.1 presents the first estimate by the CropWatch team of global maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans production in 2017. It is issued at a time when many winter crops in the northern hemisphere are still growing and summer crops are in very early stages, or even to be planted; in the southern hemisphere the harvest of the summer season/monsoon season was completed. The estimate is based on a combination of remote-sensing models (used for major commodities at the national level and presented in red in table 5.1) and statistical trend-based projections, which are used for minor producers and for those countries which will harvest their crops later during 2017 and for which no directly observed crop condition information is currently available. The percentage of modeled production varies by crop: 24% for maize, 65% for rice, 98% of wheat (most of it being winter wheat) and 52% for soybeans. 

It is also important to remember that, for China and the 30 countries described in chapters 3 and 4 and listed by name (the “major producers”), the quantitative estimates in this chapter are calibrated against national agricultural statistics (as opposed to FAOSTAT). This means that (i) sub-national statistics are used at least for the largest countries and (ii) 2016 information in included in the calibration. It is also stressed that the calibration is crop-specific, which means it is based on different crop masks for each crop and that, for each crop, both yield variation and cultivated area variation are taken into account when deriving the production estimates. The major producers represent at least 80% of production and 80% of exports. “Others”  and the countries shown in black in the production table were extrapolated to 2017 based on the linear trend from 2010 to 2016, with FAOSTAT data up to 2014 (the last year available) and CropWatch final estimates for 2015 and 2016. 

CropWatch production estimates differ from other global estimates by the use of geophysical data in addition to statistical and other reference information such as detailed crop distribution maps. 

Production estimates

CropWatch estimates the global 2017 production of the major commodities at 1056 million tons of maize, up 5% over 2016, 761 million tons of rice (up 3%), 730 million tons of wheat (a 1% drop below 2016), and 305 million tons of soybeans, down 3%. The major producers contribute 936 million tons of maize (+6%), 685 million tons of rice (+3%), 622 million tons of wheat (-1%), and 282 million tons of soybeans (-4%). The share of the “minor producers” (shown as “others” in the table) to the global production is 8% (soybean) to 15% (maize) of the global production, and about 10% for rice and wheat. With the exception of wheat and soybeans, the group of the major producers outperforms the bulk of the remaining nations, with the largest increases over 2016.

Table 5.1. CropWatch estimated maize, rice, wheat and soybean production for 2017 (thousands tons)

[see table in word doc]

Note: Numbers in red are based on a combination of remote-sensing models, while other numbers are statistical trend-based projections.

Maize

Large increases in maize production are listed for South Africa (+37%), as the country recovers from the 2016 El Niño drought. In Poland (+28%), Russia (+23%), and Ukraine (+15%) the increase results from the trend of the previous seasons. Among the major producers in the northern hemisphere, CropWatch puts China at 212 million tons (+6%) and the United States at 383 million ton (+4%). In the southern hemisphere, both Brazil and Argentina did well with 79 million tons (+13%) and 30 million ton (+16%), respectively. Tables B1 to B3 in the annex show additional detail. In both countries, “others” are catching up with the main producing areas, illustrating the fact that production areas are diversifying, which can only be beneficial in the long term for the stability of output, especially in Argentina which has recently suffered from large production variability. The provinces of Cordoba and Buenos Aires still account for 25% of production each, but “others” is now reaching the same percentage. Moreover, while the two leading provinces experience a drop in the production of maize (-3% and -2%), “others” increased 7%. In Brazil, the states of Mato Grosso, Parana, and Goias still lead: they make up 24%, 19%, and 10% of the national production, respectively. The first, however, grew over 2016 at a rate of 5% to 6%, while Goias progressed 27%, and “others” 47%, describing the same picture of spatial diversification as in Argentina. 

Rice

Among the major Asian producers, most are assessed to be doing well in 2017, including Bangladesh (50 million tons and a +6% increase over 2016), China (205 million tons, +2%), India (167 million tons, +7%) in spite of very mixed weather conditions in late 2016, Indonesia (70 million tons, +1%), and Myanmar (28 million tons, +9%). Among the major exporters, Thailand (41 million tons, +5%) did well, but less favorable outputs are projected for Pakistan (9 million tons, +2%) and especially Vietnam (43 million tons, 0%). The Philippines are the only major Asian producer that undergoes a decrease (-5%). All negative impacts are more or less directly the result of El Niño, and the current situation of the phenomenon (see section 5.4) raises the fear that it may repeat itself in 2017. The main producers in Latin America, while their rice outputs are sizeable, are dwarfed in comparison with Asia. CropWatch covers Brazil with some detail (see also annex B2), and the country is projected to increase this year’s rice production. Argentina, which is listed in table 5.1 with 2 million tons of rice output (+4%) actually comes after Peru and Colombia in terms of production. Among the largest non-trend based production estimates, the largest decrease in rice production is listed for Egypt (-3%), along with decreases for all its cereals (maize, -1% and wheat, -3%). 

Wheat

Table 5.1 lists few countries with an improved production over 2016, resulting in the above-mentioned global production decrease of 1%. Positive values for winter wheat in the northern hemisphere, which makes up the bulk of wheat production, are estimated at 12% for Bangladesh, where the crop is gaining popularity, 2% for China, 17% for India (the Rabi crop), and 5% for Ukraine, which contradicts the generally mixed qualitative assessment in Chapter 3. Large negative values are given for Iran (-26%) and Kazakhstan (-14%), Romania (-19%), the Russian Federation (-18%), and Turkey (-11%). Many of the areas suffered from an unusually large shortage of sunshine, but this occurred at late dormancy and early spring growth. Better estimates will become available at the time of harvest. The CropWatch estimate for the United States stands at -4%, which will probably need to be revised upward according to the qualitative assessment (see also the detailed estimates by state in annex B). All the major wheat producing states with a drop in production compared with 2016 also recorded very low sunshine and very abundant rainfall that may have affected crop development through water logging. These include Kansas (-8% wheat production, -7% RADPAR), North Dakota (-20%,-4%), South Dakota (-19%,-5%), Colorado (-5%, n.a. but -6% for the MPZ as a whole), Idaho (-18%,-9%), and Nebraska (-15%,-8%). 

Soybean

Only two estimates based on remote sensing are currently available after the South American summer crop harvest, for which details are given in annex B. Argentina remained at the same level as in 2016, and Brazil is up 5% for soybean production. In Argentina, the production drop recorded by the two main provinces (-3% in Buenos Aires and -2% in Córdoba) that together provide about half the national output, is compensated by increases in Entre Rios (+6%) and by “others” (+7%). In Brazil, all states did well, including the two major producers (Mato Grosso +5% and Parana +6%), but with the exception of Minas Gerais (-3%). 

Major importers and Exporters

Table 5.2 provides some information about the likely impact on trade of the production variations outlined above. Both maize importers and exporters increased their production by approximately the same percentage between 5% and 7%. For rice, however, the output of the two major importers was low: Philippines (-5%, modeled) and Iran (-3%, trend-based). Nigeria, the top importer, which produces about 5 million ton of rice, will do well (+14%) if the recent trend continues into 2017. 

Table 5.2. 2017 production (million tons) and difference from 2016 of major importing and exporting countries

Wheat importers did relatively well (+1%), but exporters are assessed as generally poor, with negative changes among 4 of the top 5 exporters (United States -4%, France -1%, Canada -2%, and Russia -18%) and 8 of the top 10 (including also Germany -2%, Argentina -3%, Kazakhstan -14%, and Romania -19%). 

For soybean, top importers produce typically only a fraction of their consumption, so that the negative 2017 trend compared with 2016 is of little significance; it is, however, an illustration of ever increasing demand. Among the top 5 exporters of the crop actual data are available for Latin America, where the total output remained stable in Argentina but increased in Brazil.