This section focuses on disasters that occurred between February and the end of April 2017, a relatively quiet period in comparison with previous ones in terms of the number of events to be reported on. The period is characterized mainly by the aftermath of El Niño, i.e., floods in north-western South America in March (excess rain started last year in December); the difficult recovery from the impact of El Niño in the Horn of Africa where drought drags on in large areas; and the recovery from hurricane Matthew, which befell the Caribbean and adjacent areas in September 2016, causing damage now estimated to be in excess of US$ 15 billion. Haiti was badly affected because of the prevailing poverty and resulting lack of resilience against disasters, and 400,000 people are still in need of food aid. 

Earthquakes and violence

Over the reporting period, no destructive earthquake was recorded, but aftershocks of the 25 April 2015 Ghorka earthquake in Nepal still continue, with tremors now counting in the hundreds. Moreover, outbreaks of violence are reported from all continents. Although these are not natural disasters, many of them have triggers or components in the form of a temporary or permanent depletion of resources (such as soil and water) or extreme climatic conditions. About thirty countries in Europe, Africa and Asia suffer from civil or military unrest resulting in difficult food supply situations. According to the IPC Partnership  for example, close to 25 million people are currently exposed to food crises in Somalia, Yemen, and South Sudan, with 100,000 suffering outright famine in South Sudan. 

Figure 5.1. Fall Armyworm situation as of 26 April 2017

Source: ACAPS thematic report, http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/20170425_acaps_thematic_report_southern_africa_armyworms_update.pdf

Fall Armyworm

At the end of April, Reliefweb released an updated report about a new pest called the Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda), which continues spreading in southern, east and west Africa (Figure 5.1). The insect is native to Central and South America, and it is not known how it reached Africa where another armyworm (S. exempta) has been a maize pest for decades. According to a recent note in the journal Nature, even if the Fall Armyworm is currently causing limited damage in Africa, it is very likely that it will eventually spread to Europe and Asia as well.

Temperature excesses

With few exceptions (such as a heat wave in Australia), no excessive temperature situations (cold or warm waves) were flagged by the entities monitoring disasters (Reliefweb, ACAPS, and Recent Natural Disasters, among others.)

Cyclones

Several cyclones with limited impact on agriculture were recorded in Oceania and the Indian Ocean. These include for example Debbie (in late March in east and northeast Australia) and, in April, Cook (New Zealand) and Maarutha (Myanmar). None of these, however, created significant damage in the agricultural sector, unlike two African storms.

Figure 5.2. Track of cyclone Enawo

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Enawo#/media/File:Enawo_2017_track.png

In mid-February, tropical storm Dineo killed at least seven people in Mozambique and destroyed thousands of homes and buildings. Strong winds of up to 160 km/h affected 550,000 people as well as crops mainly in Inhambane province. Impacted crops included cereals and fruits, which are important local cash crops (cashew, coconut). 

One month later, on March 7, tropical cyclone Enawo (Figure 5.2) hit land in the northeastern district of Antalaha in Madagascar, the strongest cyclone in about 15 years. Heavy rain and strong wind that reached 230 km/h were recorded. After landfall, the cyclone turned left and crossed the island from north to south in two days, affecting the whole country, though mostly eastern and central areas. At least 80 people were killed and 183 wounded, mainly in Analanjirofo and Sava regions. Moreover, all crops and rice fields in Antalaha and Sambava were submerged and have been destroyed. Village food reserves were also destroyed by the floods, and food prices in local markets are increasing. More importantly, the impact on cash crops such as vanilla will be felt well after the situation returns to normal. According to World Bank estimates, losses in the agricultural sector reach about US$ 200 million.

Droughts

Drought situations are mainly reported from the Horn of Africa and Pakistan.

For the Horn of Africa, El Niño related droughts have been described in previous CropWatch bulletins. While the situation seems to have improved significantly in southern Africa, where floods were recorded (see below), the drought continued in areas of Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia at the end of April. In the whole region, livestock prices dived, brought about by the fear that, if the situation continues to deteriorate, cattle will die or herders will not be able to sell them. In contrast, maize prices went up, for example by 30% in Ethiopia, where prices currently are 43% above those for the same period last year. The price of milk and eggs has increased by 50% over the middle of last year. 

In Somalia, the number of people displaced by drought increased 16% in the last three weeks of April, bringing the total number of people in the country driven from their home areas by unrest and lack of water to more than 600,000, mostly in Baidoa (+34,700) and Mogadishu (+18,000). No new refugee movements were reported. Somalia experienced a bad dry jilaal season (January-March). The river Shabelle, the main river, dried up, triggering movements into cities and Ethiopia. Half the population of the country currently needs food assistance (involving more than 6 million people, of which 50% in IPC phases 3 and 4). At the beginning of the reporting period (January and February), the number of malnourished children had increased 24% over August last year. 

In Ethiopia, about 120,000 people in the Somali region alone have been displaced since the beginning of the year, due to a combination of drought and unrest in neighboring Somalia. The prevalence of malnutrition has increased, and food insecurity is largest mostly in the east, affecting Afar, the Sitti zone of Somali region, and parts of Amhara, Oromia, and SNNPR. In the east and south, about 6 million need humanitarian assistance.

In Kenya, just short of 40,000 displaced persons were reported in Isiolo and Baringo. Even if some relief was brought by March and April rainfall in some drought affected areas, the IGAD  Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) predicts a second consecutive poor rainy season in the semi-arid, pastoral areas, which will also affect Belg crops in Ethiopia that are normally harvested before August. The main rainy season in Kenya (“long rains”, between March and May) was late in many areas already tried by last year’s drought.

Altogether, the current situation in the Horn of Africa raises the risks that displaced persons may not be able to go back to their home areas (in spite of the fact that a few thousands were already supported by international aid organizations to return) and that the currently tense situation is bound to continue for months. 

In Pakistan, a drought was reported for Sindh province in April by the EC Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection (ECHO). About a quarter of the population is assessed as being moderately to acutely food insecure, mostly due to limited access to safe drinking water for people and animals. Waterborne diseases and malnutrition are increasing. 

Floods and landslides

Figure 5.3. Broken embankment in Tahirpur district, Northeast Bangladesh

Source: https://elispiritweaver.wordpress.com/category/storms/page/2/

Heavy rainfall, often resulting in landslides, is reported from Indonesia (Java Island) and Bangladesh at the beginning of April, and in Afghanistan in March. Other continents were affected as well, especially the south of Africa and northwest Latin America. 

In Bangladesh, rain started at the end of March, and low-lying areas, including croplands, have been inundated in the northeast (districts of Sylhet, Moulavibazar, Sunamganj, Habiganj, Netrokona, and Kishoreganj) as a result of rising waters and breached embankments. The floods have caused 150,000 hectares of Boro rice to be destroyed just before harvest, a production loss close to 800,000 tons according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Heavy March rains in Afghanistan led to floods in the provinces of Nimroz (especially Chakhansur district) and Khashrod; In total, 20,000 hectares of arable land were submerged in 23 villages, with the population made extremely vulnerable and in need of assistance. 

South African floods, while providing a welcome relief after the 2015-16 drought, affected Mozambique (in relation with the above-mentioned cyclone Dineo), Zimbabwe (in early March), and northern Angola (late March). In Angola, 11 people died and thousands were made homeless. The most serious situation is reported from Zimbabwe, where about 250 people died, and the sudden afflux of water led to about 70 dams bursting.

Figure 5.4. Devastation after a mudslide in Trujillo, northern Peru

Source:   https://globalrumblings.blogspot.com/2017/04/floodsmudslides-disasters-death-toll.html

The South American floods were severe both by their duration (they started in December 2016) and the number of people affected: 1.1 million in Peru and 180,000 in Ecuador and Colombia combined. Problems were first reported from Peru, but later moved into adjacent areas in the other two countries. The floods were brought about by an unusual phenomenon described as a “Coastal El Niño” (see also section 5.4), and the whole array of phenomena linked with excess water occurred—landslides, floods, flash floods, and mud flows. Throughout the region, relief operations were extremely difficult because of destroyed bridges and roads (6000 km in Peru alone), and local food stocks were affected as well. 

In Peru specifically, out of its 25 regions, 24 were affected by the floods and landslides and 12 declared a state of emergency, including the most affected regions of Piura and Lambayeque in the northwest, and Ica and Arequipa in the southwest. Infrastructure damage was most serious in Piura, Lambayeque, Lima, Ica, and Arequipa, with damages to dams and sewage and drainage systems. Food and water shortages are even reported in supermarkets in Lima. Food prices are rising in markets, even as only about 200 hectares of agricultural lands were destroyed as of March 20. 

The international media widely reported about the massive mudslide near Mocoa in Colombia (in the Department of Putumayo), which killed 254 people and injured 203 on March 31. The death toll is even expected to increase by at least 200 people. A state of emergency was declared in Putumayo, which borders Ecuador and Peru. In Ecuador, 47,000 people were affected, 21 people have died, and 1,410 were displaced throughout the country due to floods. 

In the agricultural sector, the damage of the recent Peruvian floods is estimated to have reached US$ 645 million. The total cost of reconstruction (US$ 2-3 billion) could cancel out the planned GDP growth for the country for 2017.