Chapter 1 describesthe CropWatch agroclimatic indicators for rainfall (RAIN), temperature (TEMP),and radiation (RADPAR), along with the agronomic indicator for potentialbiomass (BIOMSS) for sixty-five global Monitoring and Reporting Units (MRU).Rainfall, temperature, and radiation indicators are compared to their averagevalue for the same period over the last fourteen years (called the “average”),while BIOMSS is compared to the indicator’s average of the recent five years.Indicator values for all MRUs are included in Annex A, table A.1. For moreinformation about the MRUs and indicators, please see Annex C and onlineCropWatch resources at www.cropwatch.com.cn.

As mentioned already in the November 2015 CropWatch Bulletin, the globalpatterns of rainfall anomalies that have been affecting the globe over the recentsix months are largely conditioned by the on-going El Niño.

Large and consistent areas of anomalies are particularly clear throughoutEurasia and Africa (Figure 1.1 through 1.3). The MRU with the largest departurefrom average is the Western Cape in South Africa (MRU-10) where the recordedrainfall of 36 mm over the period is 68% below average, indicating a drytermination of the winter crop season in the part of South Africa that has aMediterranean climate.

MRU-10 is part of a region that also includes MRU-09 (southern Africa),where the rainfall deficit was 23%, as well as the two Malagasy MRUs MRU-05,‘main’, and MRU-06, semi-arid south-western Madagascar, where the deficit reached10% and 29%, respectively. The area experienced slightly below averagetemperature (-0.1°C) but above average sunshine (+3.5%) and the deficit of biomassaccumulation potential (-24%) indicates poor prospects for the on-going summercrops, especially maize, in this region (Figure 1.4 and sections 5.1 and 5.2).

North Africa-Mediterranean (MRU-07) and Mediterranean Europe and Turkey(MRU-59) are among the next most serious rainfall deficit areas with -53% and-31% departures from average, respectively. During the reporting period, bothMRUs have been planting winter crops under relative water stress conditions.

Next come three areas with large rain deficits that can be described as "Punjabto Gujarat", "Southern Chinese Islands to New Zealand" and "Amazon-Patagonia".Punjab to Gujarat (MRU-48, rainfall deficit of -37%) is an isolated dry area insouthern Asia, while the second spans the large area from MRU-42 (Taiwan, rainfalldeficit of -34%) and MRU-33 (Hainan, rainfall deficit of -27%) via MRU-49(maritime Southeast Asia, -24%) to MRU-53 (Northern Australia, rainfall deficitof -43%) and New Zealand (MRU-56,rainfall deficit of-65%). The area alsoincludes East Asia (MRU-43, rainfall deficit of-29%) as well as Southern Japanand Korea (MRU-46, rainfall deficit of-13%).

The Amazon-Patagonia area is not continuous but encompasses largestretches of the Northern-central Andes (MRU-21, rainfall deficit of-21%), muchof the Amazon basin (MRU-24, rainfall deficit of-32%) as well as WesternPatagonia (MRU-27, rainfall deficit of-56%). This area is bordering the Pampas(rainfall surplus of +62%) and other agriculturally less important areas that,nevertheless, underwent unusually favourable conditions, such as central-NorthArgentina (MRU-25, rainfall surplus of +38%) and the Semi-arid Southern Cone(MRU-28, rainfall surplus of +50%).

North America was generally wet as a result of higher rainfallrates(MRU-12, Northern Great Plains, 56%; MRU-14, Cotton Belt to Mexican Nordeste,+61% and MRU-18, southwest USA and north Mexican highlands, +71%) with theexception of the west coast (MRU-16, -25%).

Conditions were close to average in Western Europe as well as northernEurasia.

The wettest areas were part of a large portion of land that was alreadyidentified in the November 2015 CropWatch Bulletin, which encompasses many aridand semi-arid areas between West Africa and East Asia across most of CentralAsia (“West Africa to East Asia wet area”, WAEAWA). The largest positive rainfalldepartures occurred in Southern Mongolia (MRU-47, +272%) and in China (MRU-32,Gansu-Xinjiang, +139%; MRU-35, Inner Mongolia, +122% and MRU37, Lower Yangtze,+110%). They continue across Huanghuaihai (China, MRU-34), Northeast China(MRU-38), the Loess region (MRU-36), Southwest China (MRU-41), Southern China(MRU-40), the Pamir area (MRU-30, +102%), Western Asia (MRU-31, +42%), the Uralto Altai mountains (MRU-62, +41%), and eventually the Sahara to Afghan deserts(MRU-64, +50%) and the west African Sahel (MRU-08, 55%).

Figure 1.1. Global map of October 2015-January 2016rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) by MRU, departure from14YA (percentage)

There is some consistency between the global patterns of rainfall andthose of the other agroclimatic indicators, especially with regards to BIOMSS(Figure 1.4) and in particular with regard to the above-mentioned WAEAWA(Figure 1.2). The area also experienced generally low sunshine (less than 3%below average) and close to average positive temperature departures (close to+0.5°C).

Figure 1.2. Global map of October 2015-January 2016air temperature anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) by MRU, departurefrom 14YA (degrees Celsius)

Particularly in the east, however, some areas had unusually low sunshineas shown by the RADPAR map (Figure 1.3): the Lower Yangtze (MRU-37, -22%),Southern China (MRU-40, -14%), Southwest China 
(MRU-41, -10%) and Huanghuaihai (MRU-34, -9%). Parallel departure patterns arerecognizable in North America (Boreal America, MRU-61, -13%; Cotton Belt toMexican Nordeste, MRU-14, -9%) and in the south of the continent (Pampas,MRU-26, -14% and Central-north Argentina, MRU-25, -11%).

Figure 1.3. Global map of October 2015-January 2016PAR anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) by MRU, departure from 14YA(percentage)

The most significant negative temperature departures occurred inprecisely the same areas in South America (central-North Argentina, MRU-25,-2.0°C; Pampas, MRU-26, -1.3°C as well as the neighbouring semi-arid SouthernCone, MRU-28, -2.2°C), in Southwest Madagascar (MRU-06, -1.5°C) and in theSahel (MRU-08, -1.0°C). Positive temperature departures were notable in areasthat grow at least some winter crops (Cotton Belt to Mexican Nordeste, MRU-14,+1.5°C; Northern Great Plains, MRU-12, +2.0°C; Corn Belt, MRU-13, +2.3°C) butmostly at high latitudes with negative average temperature such as BorealAmerica (MRU-61, +2.9°C), Sub-boreal America (MRU-15, +2.9°C) and Sub-arcticAmerica (MRU-65, +4.6°C). In Asia, the largest positive departure occurred inthe Southern Mongolian MRU (MRU-47, +1.8°C).

Figure 1.4. Global map of October 2015-January2016 biomass accumulation (BIOMSS) by MRU, departure from 5YA,(percentage)