Chapter 3. Main producing and exporting countries

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 30 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

3.1 Overview of major agricultural countries

Among the major agricultural countries, Argentina generally experienced above-average rainfall (RAIN, +48%) that benefited winter crops, although sunshine was abnormally low (RADPAR, -10%). In Brazil, the slight RAIN deficit (-3%) results from a large disparity of state-level conditions. In the northern hemisphere, Russia (RAIN, +19%) and India (+17%) had generally favorable rainfall for the early stages of their summer crops. Mixed conditions occurred in Canada (RAIN, -8%), China (+9%), Kazakhstan (+12%), and the United States (+21%, but dry in the north). Generally poor conditions are reported for France (RAIN, -23%) and Ukraine (-17%), with the shortfall occurring over most of the territory of both countries. The same observation applies to much of western Europe west of Albania to Belgium. France had abnormally high temperatures throughout the country but close to normal sunshine.

Rainfall (RAIN indicator)

Wet areas

At the national scale, the largest positive rainfall anomalies (>50%) occurred in the wide area already identified in Chapter 1 that extends from Senegal to central Asia, with especially high departures in Sudan (+65%), Niger and Mauritania (+66% and +87%, respectively), and Jordan (+145%). Other countries with high positive rainfall departures include Egypt and Libya, but given their very low rainfall expectations, the increase is not particularly meaningful. Namibia (RAIN, +65%) in southern Africa is now past the agricultural season, and average rainfall was just 38 mm over the four months of the reporting period); nonetheless, the rainfall is welcome for the predominantly livestock-based agriculture. Haiti (RAIN, +56%), which is part of the wet area that includes the Caribbean and neighboring continental north and central America, still struggles with the aftermath of hurricane Matthew. The country is mentioned among those that suffered floods in the section on disasters in Chapter 5.

Dry areas

The severest rainfall deficit (RAIN, -67%, that is 118 mm instead of 358 mm) affected the island of São Tomé and Príncipe in West Africa; here, the reporting period corresponds to the peak of the second rainy season, and the potential damage to agriculture is significant, particularly considering that the country also had a marked deficit in sunshine of 8%. A situation with about half of the expected rainfall (RAIN about -50% and less) occurred as well in Rwanda (RAIN, -58%), while neighboring Burundi (-48%) suffered as well. Both are part of the general climatic and geopolitical ensemble that is the Horn of Africa, and both are currently struggling with refugee movements. In both countries the shortage has affected the end of the growing season and may worsen a tense humanitarian situation. It is interesting to compare Ethiopia (RAIN, -4%, nationwide) and Kenya (RAIN, -30% nationwide).

The rainfall deficit area that was identified over a broadly defined Mediterranean area includes Portugal (1) in the west (RAIN, -51%, affecting winter crops), Albania and Montenegro in the northern central Mediterranean (-36% and -33%, respectively), as well as Lebanon (-38%) and Syria (-32%) in the east. Armenia (-16%), Georgia (-20%), Iran (-34%), and Afghanistan (-42%) may be added to the east of this set of countries.

It is worth noting that, next to floods in Haiti, the islands of Dominica (eastern Caribbean) and Trinidad and Tobago (part of South America) recorded poor rainfall (RAIN, -53% and -33%, respectively).

Finally, the worst precipitation in Asia and Oceania affected the island of New Caledonia (RAIN, -49%), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (-40%), and Australia (-34% nationwide). In Australia, the deficit affects most areas to varying degrees, from RAIN at -13% in the southeastern wheat zone to -57% in the southwestern wheat zone.

Figure 3.1. Global map of April-July 2017 rainfall (RAIN) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (percentage)

Temperature (TEMP)

A striking block of below average temperature occurred in northeastern Europe, extending south into central Europe (TEMP: Poland, -1.3ºC to Bulgaria, -0.6ºC) and east as far as the Ural mountains in Russia (Oblasts of Sverdlovsk, -1.1ºC; Kurgan, -1.1ºC; and Chelyabinsk, -1.5ºC) and Kazakhstan (Kustanay, -1.2ºC; Kyzylord and Aktubinsk Oblasts). The lowest temperatures occurred in the Baltic and neighboring states: Estonia, -2.4ºC; Latvia, -2.2ºC; Lithuania, -1.9ºC; Finland, -1.6ºC; Belarus, -1.6ºC; and Russia itself with -1.4ºC.

The largest positive temperature departures occurred in the western Mediterranean countries, of which several were already mentioned for their deficit in rainfall, including Spain (+3.9ºC), Portugal (+2.8ºC), Morocco (+1.3ºC), France (+1.2ºC), and Algeria (+1.0ºC).

On other continents high temperatures were more localized, as in Africa (Angola, +1.2ºC), Central and South America (Belize, +1.3ºC; Guatemala, +1.0ºC; and Uruguay, +1.4ºC) and Asia (Mongolia, +1.5ºC).

Figure 3.2. Global map of April-July 2017 temperature (TEMP) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (degrees)

Sunshine (RADPAR)

Very large sunshine deficits occurred in Argentina (RADPAR, -10%, already mentioned above), in two high-latitude countries (RADPAR -9% in both Norway and New Zealand), and in several southern and southeast Asian countries (Indonesia and Malaysia, -8%; Bangladesh and Brunei, -7%; and Vietnam, -6%). The United Kingdom and Ireland both recorded a sunshine deficit of 7%, although their temperature and precipitation were close to normal.

Figure 3.3. Global map of April-July 2017 PAR (RADPAR) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (percentage)

Biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS)

The BIOMSS indicator refers only to the five recent years, as it is assumed that farming adapts quickly to recent climate changes. However, the variations of the indicator are generally comparable with those of the other CropWatch indicators. The following observations for the BIOMSS indicator are worth mentioning: Mauritania +61%, Niger +38%, and Sudan +43%, indicating an early and favorable start of the cropping season in three semi-arid African countries. In Jordan (BIOMSS, +136%), Egypt (+101%) and Libya (+91%), the high values may have contributed to improving late winter crops, with additional water available for mostly irrigated crops.

1 Strictly, Portugal is not a Mediterranean country as it borders the Atlantic.

Figure 3.4. Global map of April-July 2017 biomass (BIOMSS) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 15YA (percentage)

Table 3.1. CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomic indicators for April-July 2017, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Note: No sign means a positive (+) departure.