The current bulletin covers the planting of Aman rice, the growing period of Aus rice, and the harvesting of dry season irrigated Boro rice as well as wheat. Over the reporting period, the country received rainfall amounting to 2089 mm, which is 46% higher than average. The temperature was cooler by 1.1°C, and radiation was near normal. The favorable conditions are reflected in an increase in the potential biomass accumulation of 15% compared to its average value for the most recent five years. Agronomic indicators including NDVI show marginally lower values compared with average, resulting from a delayed arrival of the monsoon. VCIx exceeds 0.8 in most of the country, indicating good crop health. 

Regional analysis

Based on the topography and climatic variability, Bangladesh is divided in four regions, which are the Coastal region, Gangetic region, Hill region and Sylhet region. This agroclimatic variability has an impact on the choice of crops as well as crop distribution patterns. Regional crop prospects for the reporting period are described below.

Coastal Region

The Coastal Region of Bangladesh received 1739 mm rainfall, or 39% above average for the period. Temperature and radiation were conducive to crop growth, resulting in a 15% BIOMSS increase. Persistent cloud cover during the rice planting period has affected the NDVI profile, meaning that the NDVI and NDVI-based indicators are less reliable than expected. A VCIx above 0.8 and 84% values for CALF indicate good crop prospects. 

Gangetic Region

In the Gangetic Region, with 48% higher than average rainfall, favorable temperature of 29°C (-1.3°C) and RADPAR has shown increased BIOMSS by 21%. VCIx in this area is consistently high above 0.9, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction is 97%, indicating very good crop prospects. 

Hill Region

The largest rainfall excess of more than 50% was recorded in the Hill region. Here, RADPAR was average and temperature was relatively low at 27.4°C (-1.2°C); the BIOMSS indicator was 10% above average. In combination with low NDVI, high VCIx (0.92) and CALF at 97%, the agroclimatic indicators are indicating moderate to good crop prospects for the region. 

Sylhet Basin

Finally, the eastern region of the Sylhet Basin recorded excess rainfall (+45%), cool temperatures (-0.9°C), and significantly lower than average RADPAR (-9%). CALF is above 90%, and VCIx is mostly high (0.92) for this sub-region (except for a patch in the northern part), it is indicative of good crop prospects.

Overall crop prospect for the country are good, however it will be important to watch the agronomic indicators in the forthcoming period.  

Figure 3.7a. Bangladesh phenology of major crops

Figure 3.7b. Bangladesh national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.7c. Bangladesh maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.7d. Bangladesh spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles(right)

Figure 3.7f. Coastal Region (Bangladesh) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.7g. Gangetic Region (Bangladesh) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.7h. Hill Region (Bangladesh) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.7i. Sylhet Basin (Bangladesh) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.8. Bangladesh agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2017