Generally, crop condition in Brazil was above average during the monitoring period. The harvest of maize (main season), rice, and soybean in central and southern Brazil concluded around May, while maize in the northeast is still at an early growing stage. The second maize season in central and southern Brazil will be concluded in August. The planting of winter wheat was finished by the end of June. 

RAIN, TEMP, and RADPAR at the national level are close to average and result in a 6% negative departure of potential biomass compared with the five-year average. However, significant spatial differences among both states and sub-national regions are observed (Refer to Table 3.11 and Table A.5 in the annex). RAIN departures range from +42% in Rio Grande do Sul to -36% in Ceara. Other states with more than 10% variation from average are Goias (RAIN, -18%), Minas Gerais (-31%), Parana (+10%), and Sao Paulo (+21%). TEMP and RADPAR are generally close to average for all states except Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. In both, TEMP is about 1.0°C above average, which may potentially result in negative impacts on crops as indicated by the -9% and -25% departure from the five-year average for BIOMSS in these two states. Crop condition over the two states is nevertheless favorable as confirmed by the VCI map, which can be explained by good management. 

According to the national NDVI development profile, crop condition from April to July remained above the situation in the same period last year and close to the five-year average, but was below average during January to April. As presented in NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles, NDVI in northeastern Brazil was continuously below average before April. Scattered areas in Goias and Minas Gerais also show slightly below average NDVI, mainly due to a lack of rainfall. National average VCIx over cropland areas was 0.90, which further confirms the favorable conditions over the reporting period; high VCIx values are observed over almost all the states. 

Overall favorable conditions benefited the second maize crop, and CropWatch has revised the maize production estimates for this year to 84,019 ktons, 19.3% above the 2016 production and 4,776 ktons above the estimate from the May 2017 bulletin. Production for rice, wheat, and soybean remain the same as previous forecasts. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight sub-national regions--central Savanna, east coast, Parana River, Amazon region, Mato Grosso region, subtropical rangeland, mixed forest and farmland, and the Nordeste region--can be distinguished. Specific observations for the reporting period are included for each region. 

Central Savanna

Brazil's "central savanna" region is not one of its major agricultural regions in terms of crops production. However, rangelands and meat production make the region important in terms of food security. Overall unfavorable climatic conditions dominated the region; rainfall was 36% below average, and the region recorded only 89 mm over 4 months, the lowest value among the regions. The dry conditions have negatively affected crops and livestock.

East coast Brazil

In this region, maize and rice are major crops. NDVI profiles over maize growing areas show below average condition, while peak NDVI values (from May to July) over rice areas are above both the previous year and the five-year average. Significant lower RAIN (-33% below average) resulted in poor crop condition for maize, while rice condition remains good because of the large proportion of irrigation for rice. Overall crop condition for the region is good according to the high VCIx (0.92). 

Parana River Region

Overall, crop condition for the Parana River region is slightly above average. Agro-climatic conditions are close to average with 5% above average RAIN, 0.1°C below average TEMP, and 2% below average RADPAR. All arable land is cropped with at least one crop during the monitoring period, and average VCIx is 0.89. The NDVI profile also confirms the favorable conditions with above average NDVI since April. 

Amazon region

The Amazon region is mainly covered by the Amazon rainforest with little cropland. Due to forest logging in the late 1900s to early 2000s, cropland expanded along the roads and produced more and more crops. Overall for this region, agro-climatic indicators are close to average, but crop condition was below average according to the NDVI based crop condition development graph. 

Mato Grosso region

The Mato Grosso region covers the states of Mato Grosso and Rondônia, as well as a northern part of Mato Grosso do Sul. Maize and soybean are the major crops in the region, and more and more farmers decide to grow two seasons of maize. Agro-climatic conditions over the reporting period were favorable with 8% above average RAIN and average TEMP and RADPAR. Altogether, potential biomass is 4% up over the five-year average. The NDVI profile over cropland reflects almost average conditions, but still above that of last year. Overall, good outputs are expected from the region.

Subtropical rangeland region

Favorable conditions are observed in the subtropical rangeland region. RAIN departure ranks as first among the eight regions with 38% above average, while other indicators remain close to average. The NDVI peak is above the best condition over the past five years, which strongly suggest a yield increase. Since the harvest of crops was mostly concluded by the end of April, the abundant rainfall over the reporting period will provide favorable soil moisture for the next growing season. 

Mixed forest and farmland region

Maize and rice are the two major crops in the mixed forest and farmland region. Maize is at its peak growing period, while the harvest of rice is almost over. RAIN is 14% below average, RADPAR 5% above, while TEMP is normal. Altogether BIOMSS is 12% below average. Nonetheless, a high VCIx value is observed, reflecting overall favorable crop condition. Almost all arable land was cropped during the monitoring period. When averaged separately for maize and rice growing areas, the shapes of the NDVI profiles vary significantly because of different phenology and conditions. Both maize and rice condition are generally above average even with the lower rainfall, which is because the amount of rainfall (499 mm) received during the season is sufficient for crops. Overall crop condition is favorable compared with the previous five years. 

Nordeste region

Overall crop condition is unfavorable due to the adverse weather conditions. The region only received 138 mm of rainfall, down 29% compared to normal for the period. Together with average TEMP and -6% RADPAR, BIOMSS was 23% below the five-year average. Since most arable land is rainfed, crops in the region suffered from drought, and crop condition was continuously below average according to the NDVI based crop development profile. 

Figure 3.8a. Brazil phenology of major crops

Figure 3.8b. Brazil national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.8c. Brazil maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.8d. Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and the corresponding NDVI departure profiles

Figure 3.8e. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Central Savanna (Brazil)

Figure 3.8f. Condition development graph based on NDVI for East coast (Brazil) over maize (left) and rice (right) mask

Figure 3.8g. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Parana River (Brazil)

Figure 3.8h. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Amazon (Brazil)

Figure 3.8i. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Mato Grosso region (Brazil)

Figure 3.8j. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Subtropical rangeland (Brazil)

Figure 3.8k. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI over maize mask (left) and rice mask (right) for Mixed forest and farmland (Brazil)

Figure 3.8l. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Nordeste (Brazil)

Table 3.11. Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2017 

Table 3.12 Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2017

Table 3.13 CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for Brazil in 2017 (thousand tons)