The current reporting period covers both the harvest of winter wheat crops and the early development of summer crops. Drought prevailed in most of southwest Canada (RAIN, -8%). At the same time, temperature was almost average (TEMP, +0.1°C). With slightly below average RADPAR (-3%), the potential biomass was also slightly below the recent five-year average (BIOMSS, -1%). Based on the NDVI profiles and crop condition clusters, crop growth conditions are below those of last year for the same period, with conditions even slightly worse than the average of the last five years. Additional evidence for the poor growth condition in the Canadian Prairies are VCIx values mostly between 0.5 and 0.8. In Manitoba (RAIN, -25%) and Saskatchewan (RAIN, -24%), two of the three main production provinces, the drop in rainfall resulted in a decrease in the biomass production potential (BIOMSS, -14% and -15%), respectively. Overall growth conditions were poor, though in the east of the country indicators show normal growing conditions. Generally, CropWatch assesses crop growth condition and yield in Canada as below that of 2016.

Regional analysis

For Canada, five sub-regions can be distinguished. For this bulletin, however, only two--Canadian prairies and Atlantic Ocean region--were analyzed because the other three sub-regions still had freezing temperatures in July. 

Canadian Prairies

The Canadian Prairies sub-region is the largest food production area in Canada. During the reporting period, rainfall here was significantly below average (-14%). Although the weather was slightly warmer than expected (TEMP, +0.5°C), radiation was average (RADPAR, 0%), and the potential biomass dropped below the five-year average (BIOMSS, -7%). Meanwhile, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction was stable, while VCIx was 0.89. Taking into account also the NDVI profiles, the crop growth condition in the region is considered poor, and CropWatch predicts crop production will be below that of last year.

Atlantic Ocean (CAN)

The Atlantic Ocean sub-region includes Ontario and Quebec. Here, agro-climatic indicators were slightly below average (RAIN, -5%;TEMP, -0.2°C; and PAR, -7%), while both the potential biomass and Cropped Arable Land Fraction were unchanged (BIOMSS, 0%; CALF, 0%); VCIx was 0.96. According to the NDVI profiles, crop condition improved in June to July, which led to the unchanged potential biomass. Crop production can exceed the previous year's if conditions remain favorable. 

Overall, crop production of Canada could undergo a slight drop due to mild drought conditions, which affected mostly late stages of winter wheat. Maize, soybean, and spring wheat are mostly unaffected. As a result, CropWatch predicts a drop in wheat production (33,290 ktons, -6.8% below 2016), but increases for maize (11,701 ktons, +3.4%) and soybean (5,386 ktons, +3.7%). 

Figure 3.9a. Phenology of major crops in Canada

Figure 3.9b. Canada national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.9c. Maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.9d. Spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.9f. Canadian Prairies region (Canada) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.9g. Atlantic Ocean (Canada) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.14. Canada agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2017