Following the sporadic rains received so far, the harvest of the Belg season was generally unfavorable. Judging from VCIx values and spatial NDVI profiles, however, the main Meher cropping season has so far been promising. Nationwide, marginal reductions in rainfall (RAIN -4%) and temperature (TEMP, -0.2%) compared to the average were observed. The rainfall of 555 mm with a slight increase in radiation (RADPAR, +1%) have together resulted in a minor biomass production potential reduction of about 4%. Most of the producing areas of North Oromia and Amhara recorded favorably high VCIx, between 0.8 and 1.0.

The timely "Kremt rains" in June aided the favorable establishment of maize and teff in the central and western parts of the country, to be harvested during the Meher season. As a result, conditions were much above average for most crops. Good harvests are anticipated from the central regions of Amhara, while poor to disastrous conditions may prevail in the eastern part.

Regional analysis

The semi-arid pastoral zone, southeastern Mendebo highlands, southeastern mixed-maize zone, western-mixed maize regions, and central-northern maize teff highlands are the major cereal and grain producing areas of Ethiopia reported in this analysis.

Looking at the indicators by sub-region, severe drought spells affected the semi-arid pastoral zone, thereby affecting thousands of livestock as biomass reduced (BIOMSS, -20%) due to a drop of close to 30% in rainfall. The temperature however, increased marginally (TEMP, + 0.2°C), contributing to increasing evaporation and pressure on water points. 

The southeastern Mendebo highlands and the southeastern mixed-maize zone, covering part of Oromia and Dire DawaHarari and near the Somali Highlands (a major maize and teff producing area), both received below average rainfall (RAIN, -37% for both) and are currently experiencing unfavorable conditions. There was no reduction in CALF for the southeastern Mendebo highlands; VCIx here is 0.89. As for the southeastern mixed-maize zone, CALF was 4% below the average, with a maximum VCIx of 0.77. A significant biomass reduction (BIOMSS, -25%) was also noted for the southeastern mixed-maize zone. The spatial extent of this situation might entail a great investment in food support from government and related organizations.

In contrast, the western-mixed maize regions experienced some drought conditions, but rains stabilized and the biomass increment compared to average was about 9%. Similarly, the maximum VCIx was very favorable at 0.94. In this area, there was no shift in the CALF recorded. The central-northern maize teff highlands also experienced good Kremt rains and established a good crop of maize and teff. The maximum VCIx was 0.89, indicating good vegetation conditions. Here, radiation did not vary from the average, while temperature decreased by about 0.2°C during this period. Meanwhile, CALF was reduced by 8% compared to the average.

Altogether, pastoral low rainfall areas suffered drought and the Belg season was poor, but the situation remains fair for Belg crops to be harvested from August until the end of the year.

According to CropWatch production estimates, following the poor rains the production of maize is expected to be a little bit below last year's output, by about 9%, while wheat production will be reduced by 12%. 

Figure 3.12a. Ethiopia phenology of major crops

Figure 3.12b. Ethiopia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Ethiopia

Figure 3.12c.  Ethiopia maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.12d. Ethiopia spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to localcropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVIprofiles (right)

Figure 3.12f. Semi-arid pastoral region (Ethiopia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

Figure 3.1g. South-eastern Mendebo highlands region (Ethiopia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

Figure 3.12h. South-east mixed-maize region (Ethiopia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

Figure 3.12i. Western mixed-maize region (Ethiopia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

Table 3.22. Ethiopia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, April-July 2017

Table 3.23. Ethiopia, agronomicindicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from5YA, April-July 2017

Table 3.24. CropWatch-estimated maize and wheat production in Ethiopia for 2017 (thousand tons)