Crops in Indonesia generally showed good condition between April and July (VCIx=0.95). The monitoring period covers the harvest of the main rice and maize crops, as well as the growing of secondary rice. Compared with the recent average, precipitation (RAIN) was significantly above average by 21%, while temperature was below (TEMP, -0.7°C). Due to the favorable moisture conditions, biomass increased by 7% compared to the recent five-year average. It is stressed, however, that the model used to compute the biomass production potential takes only rainfall and temperature into account. As a result, the significant drop in sunshine (RADPAR, -8%) is likely to have affected yields negatively and the BIOMSS value is too optimistic. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) remained stable compared with previous years.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Indonesia, among which three are relevant for crops cultivation. These three regions are Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan and Sulawesi. 

Sumatra

The crop condition in Sumatra was mostly average. The island experienced wet conditions, with an increase in rainfall reaching +13% compared to average, while temperature dropped 0.8°C. As radiation decreased by 5%, the biomass potential increase of 5% is too optimistic. According to the NDVI clusters,  crop condition was above average in Riau, Jambi, and Sumatera Selatan over the entire monitoring period, while the NDVI departure was a significant 0.2 below average in late January in southern Lampung and Bengkulu, rising however to average in recent months.

Java

Unlike other regions in the country, rainfall in Java was below average by as much as 21%, while radiation was 4% below average. Affected by the deficit of soil moisture and sunshine, the biomass production potential indicator was 13% below its five-year average. The NDVI profile of Java also shows a crop condition much below the five-year average from May to July. The VCIx for Java is 0.91, which is below that for other sub-regions in the country but nevertheless fair.

Kalimantan and Sulawesi

Kalimantan and Sulawesi experienced very wet weather conditions, with rainfall 21% above average and a significant radiation decrease of 9%. Although the BIOMSS indicator increased by 10% compared to the recent five-year average, the low sunshine is likely to have negatively affected rice growth. According to the NDVI clusters, the crop condition in Kalimantan Barat dropped below average in late-February and early-March, then recovered to an average level. The VCIx map shows the value of some pixels in Kalimantan Tengah exceeding 1, indicating favorable crop condition in those places.

Overall for the country, the abundant rainfall during the reporting period provided a favorable soil moisture condition for sowing the secondary rice and dry season maize. CropWatch assesses that the yield of maize in Indonesia will decrease by 4.1% in 2017. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction remains unchanged from 2016.

Figure 3.15a. Indonesia phenology of major crops

Figure 3.15b. Indonesia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum 

Figure 3.15c.  Indonesia VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.15d.  Indonesia spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.15f. Sumatra(Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15g. Java(Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.15h. Kalimantan and Sulawesi (Indonesia) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.32. Indonesia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2017

Table 3.33. Indonesia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, April-July 2017

Table 3.34. CropWatch-estimated maize and rice production for Indonesia in 2017 (thousands tons)