Crop condition from April to July 2017 was generally below average in Iran. During the reporting period, winter wheat was harvested in a period from June to July, while the planting of summer crops (potato and rice) had started in April. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, -34%) was far below average for the period of the year, while the temperature (TEMP, +0.3°C) and radiation (RADPAR, +0.8%) were just above average. The unfavorable agroclimatic conditions resulted in a significant decrease in the BIOMSS index by 28% compared to the five-year average. The national average of the maximum VCI index was 0.7, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) significantly decreased by 15% compared to the five-year average.

From April to July, crop condition was below average in most of Iran's crop areas accounting for 69.1% of total arable land. Areas with above average condition were mainly distributed in Mazadaran and Golestan provinces in the central-north region, as well as in some parts of Luristan province in the central-west and Farsand and Hormozgan provinces in the southwest. The main winter crop areas from Ardabil to Hamadan, and extending south and south-east as far as the Fars province, experienced unfavorable crop conditions during the monitoring period.

Overall, due to the unfavorable weather and crop condition, the yield estimates and cropped area for winter wheat are below 2016 numbers by 10% and 12%, respectively. Winter wheat production is estimated to be even 21% lower than 2016. Crop condition of summer crops was also unfavorable during the monitoring period, and the significant decrease of rice area is an important reason for CropWatch to estimate rice production at a level 13% below last year's harvest.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crops cultivation. The two regions are west and north region and south coast region.

West and north region

In this region, the accumulated rainfall (RAIN) was 37% below average. Radiation was close to average, while temperature (TEMP, +0.3°C) was above average. The unfavorable agroclimatic conditions resulted in a negative departure of BIOMSS of 33% compared to recent five years average. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction in the area is only 25% (a drop of 17% compared to the five-year average), while the region-wide VCIx was 0.72. According to the NDVI profiles, the crop condition for this region was generally unfavorable. However, the main rice areas in the Mazadaran province and winter crops in Luristan and Golestan provinces experienced favorable crop condition. Overall, the outcome for winter crops in this region is assessed as poor. 

South coast region

Compared to average, this region received 26% less rainfall, while temperature was up 0.6°C. The agroclimatic indicators also resulted in a decrease of the BIOMSS index for this region by 19%. VCIx was 0.78 for the south coast region's cropped area, with a Cropped Arable Land Fraction of 10%. The cropped area increased by 24% compared to the five-year average for the south coast region. According to the NDVI profiles, the crop condition for this region was close to the five-year average. Overall, the outcome for winter crops is expected to be normal. 

Figure 3.17a Iran phenology of major crops

Figure 3.17b. Iran national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.17c. Iran maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.17d. Iran spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.17f. West and north region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.17g.   South coast region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.38. Iran agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2017

Table 3.39. Iran agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, April-July 2017

Table 3.40. CropWatch-estimated rice and wheat production for Iran in 2017 (thousands tons)