Over the reporting period, winter wheat has been harvested while rice and soybean were still growing. Maize was also in the fields throughout the country except in the northwest. Overall, according to the national NDVI development graph, crop condition in Mexico was below average.  

Rainfall (RAIN) exceeded average by 10%, whereas temperature (TEMP) dropped by 0.5°C and radiation (RADPAR) was close to average. At the national scale, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction decreased by 1.0 percentage point compared to the five-year average. As shown in the VCIx map, high VCIx values appear in southeastern Mexico, while low values occur in the northern and central parts of the country. About 62.4% of crop lands showed a below-average condition, with those areas mainly located in the west and southeast of the country, as shown by the graph of spatial NDVI patterns and corresponding NDVI profiles. In contrast, the remaining 37.6% of cropped areas had above average condition, with these areas located in the southeast--consistent with the VCIx pattern. Based on the above analysis, the crop production for the current season in Mexico is estimated to be below average.

Regional analysis

According to cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into five subnational regions, including northwestern mixed wheat and maize area, southern maize zone, central temperate zone, northern mixed cotton and wheat area, and northeastern mixed sorghum and maize area. The following are crop condition analyses for these regions.

Northwestern mixed wheat and maize area

According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in this region was average from April to the end of May, but below average starting in early June. RAIN and RADPAR were slightly above average (+5% and +2%, respectively), while TEMP was about average (- 0.6°C). BIOMSS was up 5%, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction decreased by 2.6% compared to the five-year average.

Southern maize zone 

Crop condition was consistently below average during the reporting period. Rainfall was above average (RAIN, +18%), with average TEMP (-0.6°C) and relatively low RADPAR (-2%). CALF was average and BIOMSS increased 9%.

Central temperate zone

According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average, together with almost all other indicators: RAIN -9%, TEMP -0.3°C, RADPAR 0% and BIOMSS -1%. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction was at 94%, 1.4% below its five-year average. 

Northern mixed cotton and wheat area

Crop condition in this region was below average, according to the graph of NDVI development. BIOMSS and Cropped Arable Land Fraction fell 6% and 10%, respectively, indicating crop production for this region to be below average.

Northeastern mixed sorghum and maize area

Crop condition was below average before June, but average since early July. Rainfall and RADPAR increased by 3% and 1%, respectively. BIOMSS in this region increased 1%.

Figure 3.20a. Mexico phenology of Major crops

Figure 3.20b. Mexico national level Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.20c. Mexico maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.20d. Mexico spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

   Figure 3.20f. Northwestern mixed wheat and maize area (Mexico) crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

Figure 3.20g. Southern maize zone (Mexico) crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

Figure 3.20h. Centre temperate zone (Mexico) crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

Figure 3.20i. Northern mixed cotton and wheat area (Mexico) crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

Figure 3.20j. Northeastern mixed sorghum and maize area (Mexico) crop condition development graph based on NDVI