The reporting period is the main rice season in Myanmar. The harvest of maize in the Hills region and the harvests of wheat and the second rice crop across the country were completed in early April, early May, and mid-June, respectively. The main rice crop started growing in early July. Based on the CropWatch monitoring results, crop condition is considered to have been generally average from April to May, but then decreasing sharply starting in early June. In some regions, crop condition was even worse.  

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show a slight increase in rainfall (RAIN, +3%), but a decrease in temperature (TEMP, -0.5°C) and radiation (RADPAR, -3%) for Myanmar compared to average. This means close to average conditions, resulting in a near-average BIOMSS index (+1%). The NDVI profiles provide a first assessment of crop condition. For the whole country, the situation until mostly exceeds the five-year average. From early June to mid-July, however, crop condition deteriorated quickly, with a slight improvement in early July. 

Regarding spatial variations, the north of Mandalay and east of Magwe remained above average for the whole period. Other regions behaved similarly to the two locations before June but worsened rapidly since early June. The condition reached its minimum in early July; although it recovered a little it is still largely below the average. The spatial distribution of crop condition shows that the central plain experienced better climatic condition than the Hills  and Coastal regions, which is consistent with the agroclimatic condition of sub-national regions. The maximum VCI map also displays the high value in central part of central plain and low value in other regions. It is also stressed that Myanmar and several other countries in the region experienced erratic NDVI for unknown reasons; therefore, some uncertainty affects the analyses. 

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions are included for Myanmar; they are the Hill region, the central plain, and the coastal region. 

Hill region

The Hill region is the major maize producing area of the country and also includes some rice. Agroclimatic indicators were close to the national values. According to the NDVI development graphs, crop condition in a period from April to May was good, corresponding with the harvest of maize and the second rice crop.

Central plain area

The Central plain includes most of Mandalay and Magwe, which both show satisfactory values for the CropWatch indicators, as mentioned above. More rainfall (RAIN, +8%) than the other two regions and close to average temperature and radiation resulted in good crop condition; this is confirmed by a high VCIx (0.95) for the area. 

Coastal region

The Coastal region has the worst agroclimatic condition and crop condition among the three sub-national regions. Rainfall and radiation are somewhat below average (RAIN, -4% and RADPAR, -5%), while temperature remained average. The listed values are far from extreme, but nevertheless to a certain extent have affected the second rice crop condition. VCIx for the area is average, at 0.85.

Overall for Myanmar, crop condition is generally average due to the close to average weather conditions and normal agronomic indicators before June, but the crop condition and production of main rice may have suffered adverse conditions in June. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) for the country and the three regions, however, shows a slight increase compared to average, which may contribute to crop production. CropWatch production estimates for 2017 are close to the 2016 values.

Figure 3.21. Myanmar cropcondition, April-July 2017

(a).Phenology of major crops

(b)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA

(e)NDVI profiles

(f)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Coastal region (left) and Centralplain (right))

(g)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hill region)

Table 3.51. Myanmar agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2017

Table 3.52.CropWatch-estimated maize and rice production for Myanmar in 2017 (thousand tons)