During the monitoring period, Nigeria overall recorded an increase in rainfall (RAIN, +9%), a correlated drop in temperature (TEMP, -0.9ºC) and radiation (RADPAR, -9%), and an increase in the biomass production potential (BIOMASS, +9%). This period covers the sowing and growing phases of maize in the north of the country (the main rice crop), irrigated rice, rainfed rice, and soybean, as well as the harvest of maize in the southern equatorial areas. Compared with 2016, CropWatch forecasts an increase in maize production (+2.8%) and a decrease for the production of rice (-5.1%).

NDVI levels over the reporting period stayed below the five-year average. Based on the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), the northwest showed unfavorable conditions (especially in Borno and Yobe states), while the northeast region (particularly in Zamfara, Sokoto, and Katsina states) and the south showed more favorable conditions. 

According to the NDVI profiles, 47.9% of the cropped area had better than average conditions, while 14.9% of areas were characterized by an increasing NDVI trend that started in early May and by June led to NDVI levels above average. For 7.0% of the cropped area, crop condition was below average during almost the entire monitoring period. 

Regional analysis

At the sub-national level, the agroclimatic conditions showed that with the exception of the Derived Savana region (which registered a slight decrease in rainfall (RAIN, -1%)), all agroecological zones registered an increase, especially the Sudano Sahelian zone (RAIN, +29%). All four zones recorded a decrease in temperature compared to average (-1.0ºC).

The regional crop condition development graphs based on NDVI show that crop condition was unfavorable during almost all monitoring period (below the five-year average) in all agro-ecological zones with the exception of the Sudano-Sahelian zone. In that zone, crop condition exceeded the five-year average, but the Cropped Arable Land Fraction fell by 9 percentage points, which is by far the largest decrease in the country across all areas; Other areas had decreases not exceeding 2.2%.

Figure 3.22a. Nigeria phenology of major crops

Figure 3.22b. Nigeria national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.22c.  Nigeria maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.22d.  Nigeria spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.22f. Soudano-sahelian region (Nigeria) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.22g. Derived savanna zone region (Nigeria) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.22h. humid forest zone region (Nigeria) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.22i. Guinean savanna region (Nigeria) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.52. Nigeria agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2017 

Table 3.53. Nigeria, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2017