The reporting period corresponds to the planting of summer maize and rice crops in the country, as well as to the harvesting of winter wheat. Rainfall (RAIN) was 44% above average, with the precipitation being very welcome in traditionally low rainfall areas. With near normal temperature and radiation, biomass production (BIOMSS) jumped to a level of 37% above average. NDVI was low initially, but then picked up. Both the Cropped Arable Land Fraction and the VCI are average. 

Regional analysis

Based on agroclimatic conditions and topographic variability, Pakistan can be divided into four regions. These are called Balochistan non-agricultural region, Lower Indus river basin, Northern highland, and Northern Punjab. Among these, only the last three have agricultural areas. Crop prospects for these three areas over the reporting period are described below.

Lower Indus River Basin

This semi-arid and arid region received very high rainfall (+201% of normal, or 376 mm instead of 125 mm). Meanwhile, temperature was normal and radiation slightly below (-4%). Together, this resulted in a 91% increase in BIOMSS. NDVI values indicate a slow start of the season, but also improvements over time. With a moderate Cropped Arable Land Fraction of 38% and a mix of high and low VCIx clusters, crop condition appears to be normal. 

Northern Highland

The region received marginally higher rainfall (RAIN, +10%), while temperature and radiation remained normal, thus resulting in a potential for 10% higher biomass accumulation. Low NDVI, a moderate Cropped Arable Land Fraction of 45%, and mostly low VCIx values together indicate moderate crop condition.

Northern Punjab

The region recorded higher rainfall than average (RAIN, +21%), with normal temperature and radiation. This is expected to result in a +22% biomass accumulation in the region. NDVI was average, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction 62%, and VCI was touching 0.8, indicating good crop prospects.

With the above average rainfall and normal temperature and radiation, weather has been conducive for good crops. A marginal initial delay in cropping is improving. Overall, the situation appears to be average for maize and rice crops.

Figure 3.23a. Pakistan crop condition, April-July 2017                    

Figure 3.23b. Pakistan national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.23c.  Pakistan maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel   

Figure 3.23d.  Pakistan spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)                 

Figure 3.23f. Balochistan non-agricultural region (Pakistan) crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                               

Figure 3.23g. Lower Indus river basin (Pakistan) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.23h. Northern highland (Pakistan) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.23i. Northern Punjab (Pakistan) crop condition development graph based on NDVI