Over the reporting period, the winter wheat harvest in Turkey was completed, while summer crops--planted since April--are still growing. The condition of crops was generally below average from April to May, but close to average from June to July. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, +2%) was above average, and both TEMP and RADPAR were about average. The agroclimatic conditions resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 3.8%. The maximum VCIx (0.8) was fair, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction was low (72%) and almost identical to the five-year average.

The map of maximum VCIx is mostly consistent with the NDVI cluster map. In Ankara Province, despite a rise in the NDVI curve during the monitoring period, values stayed below the five-year average. In Konya Province, crop condition was favorable from May to July. In nearly the entire East Anatolia region, crop growth was better than average only in June, with crop growth about average in the other three months of the monitoring period. 

Overall, the production of winter and summer crops in Turkey is estimated to be average in 2017.

Regional analysis

For Turkey, five regions are used for a more detailed CropWatch analysis.

Black Sea region

Crop condition in this region was close to average from June to July. Compared with average, rainfall and temperature decreased by 4% and 0.3°C, respectively. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction was above average (+1.3%), while VCIx was 0.96. 

Northeast Region

Turkey's northeast was highly deficient in rain and also had an increase in temperature over average of about 0.7°C. Radiation (RADPAR, +3%) was also above average. Weather-based projected biomass was 20% below the five-year average, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction reached 83% and VCIx for the area was high (0.91), together indicating average crop condition.

Southeast region

Crop condition in this region was less favorable in this monitoring period than during the same period in 2016. Rainfall (RAIN, -23%) was below average, while temperature (+1.1°C) and radiation (RADPAR, +1%) were both above. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction dropped 3.2%, while VCIx was just fair (0.81) and BIOMSS was -20%. Below average crops are expected for the region. 

Central Anatolia

Sufficient rainfall, average temperature (TEMP, +0.3°C), and a slight decrease in radiation (RADPAR, -1%) characterized this region over the reporting period. As a result, BIOMSS is up by 3% over the five-year average. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction in the region is low, at 61%. Together with a moderate VCIx (0.81) and above average NDVI from June to July, these indicators suggest a fair yield but low production.

Marmara, Agean and Mediterranean

Compared with average, rainfall in this region was 18% higher, while temperature (TEMP, -0.2°C) and RADPAR (-1.2%) were comparable to the reference value. Other conditions were similar to those prevailing in Central Anatolia with a drop in the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (-1.3%), fair VCIx (0.8), and NDVI from June to July 2017 generally close to average. Production in this region is estimated to be just fair.

Figure 3.29a.  Turkey phenology of major crops

Figure 3.29b. Turkey national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.29c.  Turkey maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.29d.  Turkey spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.29f. Black Sea region (Turkey) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.29g. North East region (Turkey) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.29h. South East region (Turkey) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.29i. Central Anatolia region (Turkey) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.29j. Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean region (Turkey) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.73.Turkey agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2017 

Table 3.74. Turkey agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2017 

Table 3.75. CropWatch-estimated maize and wheat production for Tuekey in 2017 (thousand tons)