Maize, wheat, and barley are the main crops in the field in Ukraine during this monitoring period. Temperature (-1.2°C) and radiation (RADPAR, +1%) were close to average, but a deficit in rainfall (RAIN, -17%) was observed across the whole country; this deficit was especially severe in the central and northern wheat area. According to the national NDVI profile, crop condition was persistently below the five-year average, while the maximum VCI (VCIx) value was 0.91. As a result of the rainfall deficit, most parts of the country suffered a difficult situation: at the national level, a biomass reduction (BIOMSS, -11%) is expected, and CropWatch is forecasting a decrease in the wheat and maize productions for 2017, with wheat production estimated to be 6% and maize production 1% below 2016 values.

In the central Oblasts (including Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Poltava), prolonged dry conditions affected crop development during May and June, according to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles. Although NDVI recovered to average in late June, crop production in the central wheat area is expected to decease by 12%.

Altogether, the biomass and the output of summer crops is expected to below the five-year average.

Regional analysis

For Ukraine, separate analysis is provided for the Central wheat area, the Northern wheat area, the Mountain region, and the Southern wheat and maize area.

Central wheat area

The Central wheat area was highly deficient in rainfall (RAIN, -21%) and had low temperature (TEMP, -1.2°C), but radiation (RADPAR) was normal. Weather data projects the BIOMSS to be 14% below the reference five-year average, which is supported by the NDVI development graph. However, with a Cropped Arable Land Fraction at 100% and high VCIx (0.88), the overall situation remains fair.

Northern wheat area

Rainfall was deficient as well in the Northern wheat area; here, all the departures of the agroclimatic indices were negative: RAIN, -19%; TEMP, -1.1°C; and RADPAR, -1%, leading to a BIOMSS drop of 12%. Initial area-wide NDVI was low, but it gradually recovered to the five-yer average starting in mid-July. Combined with a good Cropped Arable Land Fraction (100%) and VCI (0.94), the indicators show average crop condition and production expectations.

Mountain region

The Mountain region in Ukraine received 12% less precipitation than normal; temperature (TEMP) was 1.0°C below average, while radiation was slightly above (RADPAR, +1%). With a BIOMSS variation just 5% below the five-year average, close to average NDVI throughout the season, fully cropped land (Cropped Arable Land Fraction at 100%) and high VCIx (0.97), the output is expected to be lower than during 2016 but nevertheless close to average.

Southern wheat and maize area

Finally, the Southern wheat and maize area had a mild drought (RAIN, -13%), cool weather (TEMP, -1.3°C), and average sunshine. The resulting BIOMSS reduction (-13%), average NDVI until July (when the values dropped about 0.1 NDVI units), a Cropped Arable Land Fraction of 99%, and VCIx at 0.89 together indicate fair output expectations, even if conditions were less favorable than in the mountain region. 

                                  Figure 3.30a. Ukraine phenolgy of major crops

Figure 3.30b. Ukraine national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April- July 2017 period to the previous season and five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.30c.  Ukraine maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.30d.  Ukraine spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.30f. Cebntral wheat area (Ukraine) crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

Figure 3.30g. Northern wheat area (Ukraine) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.30h. Mountains regions (Ukraine) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.30i. Southern wheat and maize area (Ukraine) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.77. Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2017

Table 3.78. CropWatch-estimated maize, wheat and soybean production for Ukraine in 2017 (thousand tons)