This reporting period covered the harvesting season of winter crops and the core of the growing season of summer crops, including maize, rice, soybean, and spring wheat. In general, the nationwide NDVI development graph indicates crop condition in the country is below the average of the previous five years.

Rainy weather was recorded over the United States as a whole, with 21% above average precipitation (RAIN) accompanied by a 3% drop in sunshine (RADPAR). Meanwhile, temperature was about average (TEMP, -0.3°C). In the Northern plains, however, some major wheat production zones experienced a shortage of rainfall, including in Montana (RAIN, -10%), North Dakota (-21%), and Oregon (-25%), which slowed the development of spring wheat and other crops. The largest rainfall excesses were recorded in the main winter wheat zones, where they delayed harvest in Kansas (RAIN, +48%), Oklahoma (+51%), and California (+38%). The major maize and soybean production zones recorded average temperature and abundant rainfall (Illinois, +29%; Iowa, +23%; Missouri, +65%; and Wisconsin, +55%), which provided ample soil moisture for crop growth. In the most important rice production zones, a 47% increase in precipitation was recorded for Arkansas, which benefited the growth of paddy.

Different NDVI development patterns occurred across the country, with in the United States this indicator typically peaking in July. In the Northern plain, the main spring wheat zone, after the peak NDVI values fell below the five-year average as a result of drought, especially in North Dakota. In the Southern plain and northwest region, the main winter wheat zone (including Washington state, Oklahoma and North Texas), NDVI stayed below average throughout the reporting period; in particular in April, NDVI was far below average due to flooding caused by heavy rain, especially in Oklahoma and northern Texas. In the corn belt, the main maize and soybean production zones, from April on forward NDVI gradually dropped from high values to average. Finally, in the lower Mississippi, the main rice production zones, above average crop condition was recorded for this monitoring period, in particular for Arkansas.

The Cropped Arable Land Fraction in the United States overall was 1.2% over the five-year average. Nonetheless, CropWatch projects the productions of wheat, maize, and soybeans to drop below 2016 values by 4.6%, 3.6%, and 0.6%, respectively. For rice, a production increase of 3.4% is expected. 

Regional analysis

In the United States, 12 regions can be distinguished. They are: Alaska and Hawaii, Blue Grass region, Corn Belt, Middle Atlantic, Northeast, Northern plains, Northwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, Southwest, Lower Mississippi, and California. For the seven major grain and oil production zones among them, a more detailed CropWatch analysis is provided below.

Northwest region

In the Northwest, one of the major winter wheat zones of the country, above average crop condition was indicated by the region's NDVI development profile. Mostly normal weather was recorded, with rainfall and radiation down by 1% and 2%, respectively, and temperature just average. Compared to average, BIOMSS increased 6%, with VCIx reaching 0.96. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction reached a spectacular 15.7% above average. Based mostly on this CALF, above average winter wheat production is expected by CropWatch in 2017.

Northern plains

North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and parts of Nebraska are the main spring wheat production zone of the  United States. The NDVI development profile for this region was far below both last year's development profile and the five-year average. Weather was mostly normal with RAIN, +5%; TEMP, +0.7°C; and RADPAR, +2%. Montana and North Dakota, however, underwent precipitation deficits of 10% and 21%, respectively. The estimated biomass production potential (BIOMSS) for the region is +2%, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction is 2% below average. Combined with moderate VCIx, the indicators are likely to result in a below average crop. 

Southern plains

The Southern plains include Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and parts of Missouri and Nebraska--all major winter wheat and maize production states. Average, but nevertheless well below 2016 crop condition is indicated by the NDVI development profile. The very humid climate included RAIN at 40% above average, cool temperature (TEMP, -0.7°C), and relatively low radiation (RADPAR, -2%). The heavy rain caused flooding across Oklahoma in April. The expected biomass production potential is 16% above its five-year average, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased by 0.9% over average. Considering the current situation and the favorable crop condition from 2016, CropWatch predicts a decrease in crop production in the Southern plains for this year.   

California 

As indicated by the region's NDVI development profile, above average crop condition (from the early growth stages to the harvest stages) is indicated for California, one of the major winter wheat production zones of the United States. Favorable agroclimatic conditions benefited the growth of winter wheat: abundant rainfall (RAIN, +34%) and average temperature and radiation (TEMP, +0.3°C; RADPAR, -2%). BIOMSS was up 21%, with a record VCIx (1.07) and a significant increase in the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (+17.9%), which together will result in above-average production.

Corn Belt

The Corn Belt (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) is the main summer crop producing area of the United States. Average crop condition is indicated by the region's NDVI development profile, even though levels are below last year's. Due to the rainy weather (RAIN, +27%), with average temperature (TEMP, -0.2°C) and radiation (RADPAR, -2%), BIOMSS increased by 8% over the five-year average, while the Cropped Arable Land Fraction was stable. Favorable crop condition prevailed in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois, while the crop condition in Ohio should be watched. 

Southeast

The Southeastern states of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida form the major cotton production zone of the United States. Slightly below average crop condition is indicated by this region's NDVI development profile. Weather was predominantly rainy with low sunshine and somewhat cooler than average: RAIN, +20%; TEMP, -0.6°C; and RADPAR, -4%. With BIOMSS 10% above the five-year average, a Cropped Arable Land Fraction similar to its 2016 value, and VCIx at 0.92, expectations are for average crops.

Lower Mississippi

In this last region, a major rice production zone, the NDVI development profile was almost identical to its 2016 behavior and above the five-year average. Humid agroclimatic condition (RAIN, +33%) was accompanied by low sunshine (RADPAR, -5%), and cool weather (TEMP, -0.9°C). The favorable crop condition is indicated by above average BIOMSS and a high VCIx (0.96).

Figure 3.31a. United States phenolgy of major crops

Figure 3.31b. United States national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April- July 2017 period to the previous season and five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.31c.  United States maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.31d.  United States spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.31f. Northwest region (United States) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.31g. North plains (United States) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.31h. South plains (United States) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.31i. California (United States) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.31j. Corn Belt (United States) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.31k. Southeast (United States) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.31l. Lower Mississippi (United States) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.79. United States agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2017