The reporting period covers the growing and harvesting stages of winter cereals, along with the sowing and growth of maize and other coarse grains from April to July. Crop condition was generally favorable. The national average VCIx was 0.87, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction was 4.6 percentage points above the five-year average. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN and RADPAR were above average (13% and +1%, respectively), and TEMP was slightly below (-0.1°C). The combination of factors resulted in high BIOMSS (+16%) compared to average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below average from April to May and from late May to early June. NDVI cluster graphs and profiles show that 52.2% of the agriculture areas had below average condition from April to late May (mainly in part of Qunghirot, Chimbay, Altynkul, Khiva, Beruni, and Turtkul provinces and part of Kitab, Guzar, Samarqand, and Guliston provinces). NDVI was above average in part of Andijon, Farghoma, and Namangan, the three eastern provinces where most wheat is produced. Condition was normal or above in other regions. Overall, CropWatch expects a drop in wheat production compared with last year's record. 

Regional analysis

Maize and cereals zone

In this area in the east of the country, the harvesting of 2017 winter cereals (mainly wheat) is underway and will be completed by the end of August. Harvesting of the spring crops will start soon and is expected to continue until the end of September. The crop condition was below the five-year average from late May to early June. For the other months, it was above average. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, rainfall and radiation were slightly above the fifteen-year average (RAIN, 6% and RADPAR, 2%), while temperature (TEMP) was average. BIOMSS shows a 3% increase compared to average. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction for the region was 6 percentage points over average, and crop condition was generally favorable in this region. 

Cotton zone

In the western and northern areas of the country that grow mostly cotton, NDVI profiles indicate generally favorable crop, which has now reached harvesting stage. Accumulated rainfall was far above average during the monitoring period (RAIN, +105%), while temperature (TEMP, -0.6°C) and radiation were about average. The agroclimatic indices for the current season indicate favorable weather conditions for crop growth, which is confirmed by the increase of the BIOMSS index by 84% compared to average. The regional average of the VCIx was 0.82. Overall crop prospects for the country are normal. 

Figure 3.32a.  Uzbekistan phenology of major crops

Figure 3.32b.Uzbekistan national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum  

Figure 3.32c.Uzbekistan maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.32d. Uzbekistan spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.32f. Cotton region (Uzbekistan)crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.32g. Maize and Cereals region (Uzbekistan)crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.82. Uzbekistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2017 

Table 3.83. Uzbekistan agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2017 

Table 3.81. CropWatch-estimated maize, wheat and soybean production for Uzbekistan in 2017 (thousand tons)