Favorable rainfall and radiation prevailed during the cropping season of the main cereals in South Africa, and the NDVI profiles reflect better crop conditions than those of last year (above 0.5). After an unprecedented El Niño-driven agricultural drought during the 2015-2016 growing season devastated maize producers across the country, with this growing season's conditions South Africa is likely to re-position itself as the major maize-exporter in the region. The NDVI profiles (between January and April) of North West, Mpumalanga, and Free-State, the major maize-producing provinces of the country, confirm this. Following these good conditions, sorghum, soybean, and millet harvests are also expected to be favorable. The observed rainfall reduction of (RAIN, -21%) compared to the average has resulted in an equivalent biomass drop (BIOMSS, -22%). Both TEMP (+0.4°C) and RADPAR were about average. 

Currently the maximum VCI (VCIx) is about 0.7, and in both Free State and North West province, irrigated wheat is growing. At the same time, in Kwazulu Natal, the citrus-growing areas are experiencing favorable conditions as seen from NDVI profiles. Most of the maize has been harvested, and an observed reduction of about 5% in cropped area may not have a huge negative impact on production. Overall, the crop conditions across the country were good, especially when compared with 2015-16.

Regional analysis

Semi-arid steppe and Mediterranean

Regional differences were observed for the agronomic indicators due to meteorological factors. The highest VCIx (0.84) was observed in the semi-arid steppe zone, in which irrigated wheat is currently growing. This region encompasses most of Free State, Northern Cape, and Eastern Cape provinces. A large departure from average was observed in the rainfall (RAIN, -52%) in the Mediterranean zone, which is a citrus-growing region; the BIOMSS reduction here was -47%. 

Overall, CropWatch-estimated maize production for the country is 57% above  2016 output, with the country's maize. The major maize producing areas are the Free State (approx. 40%) and North West and Mpumalanga (each about 20%). Wheat yield, however, has not increased much. Following the 2015-2016 drought, water levels in reservoirs are reportedly still low and might have contributed to a reduced cropped area (CALF, -5%) in the Mediterranean zone. Generally, a slight decrease in wheat production has been observed across the nation, confirming a long-time trend.

Figure 3.34a. South Africa phenology of major crops

Figure 3.34b. South Africa national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.34c. South Africa maximum VCI for April-July 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.34d. South Africa spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.34f. Semi-arid steppe region (South Africa) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.34g. Mediterranean region (South Africa) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.34h. Arid_desert region (South Africa) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.34i. Humid sub-Tropical region (South Africa) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.90 South Africa agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2017 

Table 3.91  South Africa agronomic indicators by sub-national regions , current season values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2017

Table 3.92  CropWatch-estimated rice production for South Africa in 2017 (thousands tons)