Chapter 4. China

After a brief overview of the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 presents an updated estimate of national winter crop production (4.2) and describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 presents the results of ongoing pests and diseases monitoring, while sections 4.5 and 4.6 describe trade prospects (import/export) of major crops (4.5) and an updated outlook for domestic prices of maize, rice, wheat and soybean (4.6). Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1. Overview

The current monitoring period covers the harvest of winter crops (such as winter wheat and rapeseed) and the growth of  summer crops (rice, maize, and soybean). On the national scale, rainfall increased by 9% above average, while temperature and RADPAR decreased by 0.3°C and 0.5%, respectively. The resulting biomass production potential indicator BIOMSS was average (+1%). At the sub-national level, above-average rainfall occurred in almost all regions, except Northeast China. Temperature was close to average everywhere, with departures ranging between -1.0°C and +0.8°C. The spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature profiles showed that these two climatic variables fluctuated over time (figure 4.1 and figure 4.2). Although rainfall was continuously close to average for 70.3% of areas in China, 29.7% of regions experienced excess rainfall from June to July, with these areas mainly located in south and southeast China. Moreover, precipitation was significantly above average (with an increase of more than 270 mm) in most regions of Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guizhou provinces in late June, accounting for 11.5% of planted areas of China. As a result, these areas may suffer from flood damage. During the monitoring period, consistent temperature fluctuations occurred in different regions of China.

As shown in figure 4.3, most cropland in China was cropped (with the exception of central Inner Mongolia, south Ningxia, and eastern Gansu) during the reporting period as it is now the the peak of the agricultural season for most of China. The VCIx at the national level was 0.75. Higher values appear in northeast and southwest China, as well as in Huanghuaihai (table 4.1). In contrast, lower values occur in the Loess region and Inner Mongolia, which might be affected by drought. Compared with average, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction for the country decreased by 2%, with significant declines occurring in the Loess region (-13%) and Inner Mongolia (-9%). In contrast, Huanghuaihai, Lower Yangtze, Northeast, Southern, and Southwest China regions all had average levels for CALF. The map for VHIn showed that low values were mainly located in Northeastern and Northern China (figure 4.5), consistent with the pattern of VCIx. 

Table 4.1. CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomic indicators for China, April-July 2017, departure from 5YA and 15YA 

Figure 4.1. China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, April-July 2017

Figure 4.2. China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, April-July 2017

Figure 4.3. China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, April-July 2017

Figure 4.4. China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, April-July 2017

Figure 4.5. China minimum Vegetation Health Index (VHIn), by pixel, April-July 2017