4.2. China crop production

Adequate environmental conditions over China resulted in a 0.9% increase in the yield of winter crops (among which wheat accounts for more than 90%) compared with the previous year (table 4.2). However, planted area dropped by 0.8% with most of the uncropped arable land distributed in central Anhui and southern Jiangsu. Based on the latest remote sensing data and meteorological information, CropWatch revised the winter crop production down to 124,814 thousand tons, which is about equivalent to the 2016 output (0.1% increase). The most significant production decreases occurred in Anhui (-7.8%), Shaanxi (-4.8%), and Jiangsu (-3.9%). The top winter crop area, Henan Province, produced 26.3 million tons, 3.9% up from 2016 with an absolute increase of 988,000 tons compared to that year, mitigating the poor performance of other provinces. 

Table 4.2. China 2016-17 winter crops production (in thousand tons) and variation (%) from 2015-16, by province

* Production for Taiwan province is not included.

Table 4.3 lists the latest revision of CropWatch production estimates for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production. Additional estimates for different types of rice (by growing seasons) are shown in table 4.4. As illustrated in these tables, the production of maize and rice is 3.2% and 0.1% below that of 2016, while for wheat and soybean, the production is 0.3% and 4.3% above.

Starting in 2016, China has implemented a new agricultural policy that encourages farmers to shift from maize to other, more suitable crops in regions where maize cultivation is less than optimal due to soil or climate conditions. As a result, the soybean area increased by a significant 4.6% at the national level, while maize planted area dropped 2.5%, indicating the conversion of maize cultivation to other more profitable crops. 

The most significant increase in soybean production (+7%) was observed in Heilongjiang, the top soybean producer in China, thanks to both favorable yield and increased area. Inner Mongolia also outputs 2% above 2016 production due to the expanded planted area. Soybean production decreased in the North China Plain including in Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi. As for maize, the provinces in the North China Plain and South-western China all display lower production, including Anhui, Jiangsu, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Yunnan. The reasons differ from province to province: in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shanxi, both yield and area decreased, while in Anhui, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Yunnan the main factor was a drop in yield.

The overall rice production for China remains close to 2016, although the situation depends on the type of growth (Table 4.4). Early rice and late rice production increased by 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively, while single rice production was 0.3% below 2016 values. Since rice is mostly irrigated in China, yield changes only marginally between years. The inter-annual production variation by province is not as significant as for maize, wheat, and soybean. Large production changes include single rice in Ningxia, Sichuan, and Yunnan, and late rice in Hubei.

Table 4.3. China 2017 production of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean, and percentage change from 2016, by province

* Production for Taiwan province is not included.
Note: Wheat data include both winter wheat and spring wheat.

Table 4.4. China 2017 early rice, single rice, and ate rice production and percentage difference from 2016, by province

* Production for Taiwan province is not included.

Due the significant drop of maize production, CropWatch puts the total 2017 output of summer crops (including maize, single rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybean, minor cereals, and tubers) at 399.6 million tons, a 1.8% drop from 2016 or a 7.3 million ton decrease in production. The total annual crop production is estimated at 558.7 million tons, down 1.2% from 2016 (6.9 million tons decrease).

As late rice is still at an early growing stage, and maize and single rice are at grain filling stage, CropWatch will further revise the production for each crop type as well as total production in the next bulletin.