Lower Yangtze

During April to July, the winter wheat harvest was completed in the north of the Lower Yangtze region, including the south of Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces. The semi-late and late rice is still growing in the south and the center of the region (including in Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Hubei provinces), while early rice has been harvested. Crop condition was below but close to average according to agroclimatic indicators. Accumulated rainfall was above average (RAIN, +7%), but radiation and temperature were below but close to average (RADPAR, -1% and TEMP, -0.6°C, respectively), which brought about a slight decrease of biomass production potential (BIOSMSS, -4%). As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop condition was below last year's and the five-year average, especially at the beginning of March and in June. According to the BIOMSS map, the biomass production potential was below average in most of this region, especially in the north of Zhejiang and Hunan, central Jiangxi, Anhui, and west Hubei, which coincides with the situation depicted by the VCIx map. Finally, NDVI profiles show that crop condition was slightly below but close to average in 90.2% of cropped areas at the end of July, except the area in the middle of Anhui and Jiangsu where crop condition was above average. Overall, the yield of crops in this region is expected to be below average.

Figure 4.10a. China Lower Yangtze crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April-July 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 4.10b. China Lower Yangtze spatial NDVI patterns for April to July 2017 (compared to the (5YA) (left) and (c) NDVI profiles associated with these spatial patterns (right)

Figure 4.10d. China Lower Yangtze maximum VCI, April-July 2017

Figure 4.10e. China Lower Yangtze biomass, April-July 2017