5.1 CropWatch food production estimates

Methodological introduction

Table 5.1 presents the first revision of global maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans production estimates prepared for 2017 by the CropWatch team. It is issued at a time when almost all winter crops in the northern hemisphere have been harvested, and summer crops are in their growing stages; in the southern hemisphere winter crops are growing and the planting of the summer season/monsoon season will start in a month or so.

The estimate is based on a combination of remote-sensing models (for major commodities at the national level) and statistical projections based on recent trends for minor producers and for those countries where crops are not cropped or at very early growing stage during the monitoring period. There are no directly observed crop condition information currently available. In table 5.1, modeled outputs are in bold red. The percentage of the production that is modeled (as opposed to projected using trends) now generally exceeds 95% of production for all crops.

It is important to remember that for China and the 30 countries described in chapters 3 and 4 (listed by name as the “major producers”) the quantitative estimates in this chapter are based on inter-annual variation of average and planted area using remote sensing data. In combination with the 2016 final estimates from CropWatch, production estimates for 2017 are achieved. It is also stressed that the estimation is crop-specific, as it is based on different crop masks for each crop and, for each crop, both yield variation and cultivated area variation are taken into account when deriving the production estimates. The major producers represent at least 80% of production and 80% of exports. In the production table, “Others” (1) and the countries shown in black, were extrapolated to 2017 based on the linear trend from 2010 to 2016, with FAOSTAT data up to 2014 (the last year available) and CropWatch final estimates for 2015 and 2016.

CropWatch production estimates differ from other global estimates by the use of geophysical data in addition to statistical and other reference information such as detailed crop distribution maps. Finally, this chapter only provides national data for China; for more detail please see chapter 4.   

Production estimates

CropWatch estimates the global 2017 production of the major commodities at 1008 million tons of maize (up 0.6% over 2016), 748 million tons of rice (up 1.6%), 737 million ton of wheat (a 0.5% increase over 2016), and 315 million ton of soybeans (a decrease of 0.7%). The major producers contribute 887 million ton of maize (+0.3%), 672 million tons of rice (+1.6%), 624 million tons of wheat (-0.9%), and 298 million tons of soybeans (+0.9%). The contribution of the “minor producers” (shown as “others” in the table) to the global production is 5% (soybean) to 15% (wheat), and about 10% for rice and maize. For maize and wheat, the group of minor producers outperforms the bulk of the remaining nations, with the largest increases over 2016. For rice, the increases are 1.4% ("others") and 1.6% (main producers), while for soybean the main producers increased their production 0.9% while a very significant drop (-22.9%) occurred among minor producers, confirming a generalized trend of many small (and not so small, such as in Pakistan) producers to move away from soybean on all continents. 

Maize

The largest modeled increases are those of Argentina (+16.5%), Brazil (+19.3%), and especially South Africa (+57%), as the country recovers from the 2016 El Niño drought. In the first, the production was achieved through a 20% expansion of land cropped with maize, while in Brazil the yield increased 19% due to favorable agroclimatic conditions; in South Africa, both area and yield increased (16.3% and 35.1%, respectively). In Argentina (table B.1), production increased mainly in Buenos Aires (+7.7%), Córdoba (+4.9), and Mesopotamia ("Entre Rios"; +11%). The areas described as "others," i.e., the minor provinces in terms of maize output, markedly outperformed the big six, which include San Luis, Santa Fe, and Santiago del Estero in addition to the three listed above: +86.8%. This confirms a trend - observed in both Argentina and Brazil in previous years - of the increasing importance of the minor provinces. In Brazil, the traditional maize states (Mato Gross, +11.9% and Parana, +12.4%) altogether increased their production by 13.6%, which compares with +63.8% for the minor producer states.   

Among the major maize producers in the northern hemisphere, CropWatch puts China at 194 million tons (-3.2%) and the United States at 355 million ton (-3.6%). Table B.5 provides details for the United States. The largest producers generally underwent a production drop, such as Illinois (-4.6%), Iowa (-5.2%), Nebraska (-5.9%), and Minnesota (-4.9%). Some important producers increased their output (Ohio, +4.6% and Michigan +2.4%), but not to the extent of reversing the nationwide drop. Although no other maize producer comes close to China and the United States, several important producers (in the range of 10 to 30 million ton) undergo a stagnation or negative change compared with the previous season, including Ukraine and France (both at -0.3%), Mexico (-3.0%), and India (-6.2%). Ethiopia is mentioned as well (-9.2%) as the projected decrease accompanies a difficult humanitarian situation, which may, however, improve between now and the end of the year as most Meher season crops are still to be harvested. Pakistan is mentioned as well with a production of 4.1 million ton, down 8.7% compared with 2016.

Interestingly (table 5.2), the main maize importing countries collectively underwent a production deficit close to 3% for a production volume close to 223 million ton, while exporters, with a production volume around 500 million tons, increased their production by about 0.5% (0.2% to 0.8%, respectively, for the 5 and 10 first exporters).The increased demand on global markets could thus be about 10 million ton if we consider the insatiable demand of markets for maize and soybean.

Table 5.1. CropWatch productions estimates, thousands tons

Note: Numbers in bold red represent modeled outputs. "Others" or “Minor producers” include the 151 countries from Afghanistan and Angola to Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Rice

Among the major Asian producers and exporters, positive rice production increases over 2016 are recorded in India (+4.3% to 163 million tons), Vietnam (+9.3%), and Thailand (+1.8%). This was usually achieved through increases in area or, especially in Vietnam, yield (+8.4%). China suffered a small and comparable drop in both area and yield (-0.6%) which, together, brought about the nation-wide near-stagnation production drop. Chapter 4 provides details about the spatial distribution of rice performance in China. Some “minor rice producers” in Asia did well, including Cambodia (+4.7%) and the Philippines (+8.5%). Bangladesh (-3%) reduced both yields and hectarage. In South America, table B.2 indicates that Santa Catarina State increased the output 10.6% to 1.1 million tons, while the increase in Rio Grande do Sul, the most important rice growing State in Brazil, is put by CropWatch at 8.8 million tons, up 3.3% from 2016.  

The top five rice importers (Iran, Nigeria, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq) increased their production by 3.9%, largely due to the performance of the Philippines since both Iran (-12.7%) and Nigeria (-5.1%) did badly. The main exporters did well except Pakistan, but their production nevertheless increased 3.2% and 3.8% for the top 10 and top 5 producers, respectively.

Wheat

Wheat is normally less prone than other commodities to large variations in production, supply, and demand because of the large number of countries that grow the crop, and because it is cultivated as both a winter and a summer crop – even if most production is from winter wheat.

For the current report, due to less favorable agroclimatic conditions than during the previous years, CropWatch expects a drop in wheat production in three of the major wheat producers: Canada, down 7.8% to 31 million ton; the United States down 4.6% to 54 million tons; and Australia, down 6.0% to 30 million tons. In all cases, yield fell more than areas. Additional detail is provided in tables B.3 through B.5. In Canada, only Ontario did better than last year (+8.0%) while Saskatchewan is down 11.9%. In the United States, the nationwide decrease results from a mix of favorable and unfavorable conditions. Among the first, CropWatch estimates put California (+9.7%), Oregon (+13.1%), Ohio (+3.0%), and especially Idaho (+2.7%). The second category (unfavorable conditions) include all the major wheat states such as North and South Dakota (-9.6% and -8.9%, respectively), Montana (-15%), and Kansas (-7.7%). In Australia, all states except Victoria (+3.0%) recorded a deficit compared with 2016.

As a result, the total production of the five main wheat exporters (table 5.2) fell 6.9%. At the same time, the main importers increased their production by 4.8%. Other countries to be mentioned under wheat for a drop in production include again Ethiopia (-11.9%), Mexico (-7.5%), Ukraine (-5.8%), Iran (-20.8), and Kazakhstan (-13%). Among the countries that did well or very well, Brazil (+3.0%), Poland and Russia (+2.1 and 2.4%, respectively), and India +8.6% must be mentioned; in India the improvement was achieved through an increase in both winter wheat area (+5.2%) and yield (+3.1%).

Table 5.2. 2017 production (million tons) and difference from 2016 of major importing and exporting countries

Soybean

China remains a minor soybean producer (14 million ton) when compared to the United States (109 million tons), Brazil (97 million tons), and Argentina (51 million tons). However, the current season is the second consecutive year when Chinese soybean production increased (by a significant 4.3%), thereby confirming the reversal of the decade long negative trend that had been affecting the crop. This is also the reason why the top five soybean importers increased their production by 3.4% in 2017. The production growth rate is exceeded only by Brazil (+5.4%), while Canada (+3.7%) and especially the United States (-0.6%) are performing less well. In India, due to the delayed monsoon season, maize and soybean decreased compared with 2016. Soybean production fell 6.9% due to a drop in cultivated area close to 20% (19.7%). In China, on the other hand, it increased 4.6%.

Sub-national spatial detail about the major producers is given in the tables of annex B. In Argentina, improved output over 2016 is recorded in Mesopotamia (+5.8%) and the combined "minor states" (+7.0%), while the largest drop occurred in Santa Fe (-3.1%). In Brazil, only Minas Gerais decreased output for soybean, while Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana had the largest improvement (+6.7% and +6.4%, respectively). A very mixed situation prevails over the United States. Among the important soybean areas, Arkansas (+3.4%), Ohio (+4.5%), and Indiana (+0.9%) are the only three with improvements over the previous season. Most other states are down, including Illinois (-4.6%) and Iowa (-5.2%), followed by Minnesota (-4.5%), Missouri (-1.7%), and South Dakota (-7.9%), the latter which suffered the largest drop nationwide.