Bulletin

wall bulletin
Executive summary

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: Miao

Executive summary

Introduction

The period from October 2017 to January 2018 (ONDJ)  is a relatively quiet period from an agricultural point of view. In the temperate northern hemisphere summer crops have been harvested, while winter crops have been were planted and are now mostly dormant. In some tropical and equatorial countries, including the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil, planting of the second maize and rice generally starts around January, while in the southern hemisphere summer crops are at advanced development stages and nearing flowering, for example maize and soybean in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa. 

The executive summary first describes significant global agroclimatic patterns and highlights countries with exceptional environmental conditions. After a summary of the current situation of crops in China the CropWatch estimates of agricultural production in the southern hemisphere are presented.   

Agroclimatic patterns

Although global temperature was close to average (-0.1°C), tropical and equatorial areas were cooler than expected while several areas in the temperate northern hemisphere in Eurasia and America experienced warmer than normal weather. Even at the very local scale, few extreme temperatures were observed. 

Global radiation (sunshine) was 4% below average, which is significant and constitutes the continuation of a global pattern that started during the previous reporting period (JASO). The lowest values concentrated around the Baltic sea  and only few areas had positive sunshine anomalies. Very significant and record sunshine deficits are also reported mainly from China (Hainan, Lower Yangtze, Southern Japan and the southern fringe of the Korean peninsula.)

The clouds that reduced sunshine also increased precipitation, which was 8% above average. The spatial variability of rainfall was large, with relatively well defined surplus and deficit areas. The most severe droughts occurred in unconnected patches in the southern hemisphere: (1) the southern Cone of Latin America ( Chile -51%; Uruguay -26%) and most provinces of Argentina; (2) Southern Africa, (3) East African Highlands and (4) New-Zealand. A large continent-wide drought affected an area including the Mediterranean, the Middle East and western Asia (Pakistan, -48%) and extended into western central Asia. In this area Portugal (-65%) and Algeria (-63%) were the driest countries. Two remaining drought patches to mention include eastern Asia with the Lower Yangtze region and the western coast of north America from Mexico to Canada.

Among the areas which recorded excess rainfall, the largest covers the southern Baltic (Estonia +30%, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Sweden +37% , Belarus, Poland and Norway +46% and extends across Asia as far as Azerbaijan (+60%) and Kyrgyzstan (+51%) and northern China. Around the Baltic, conditions were abnormal for all CropWatch agroclimatic indicators resulting in warm, wet and cloudy weather. Others areas with above-normal rainfall include the Caribbean and Central America, Paraguay and Bolivia and adjacent areas from which frequent floods were reported.  

Agronomic indicators

The impact of extreme weather conditions, especially drought, is directly assessed  by the two main agronomic indicators used by CropWatch i.e. Cropped Arable Land Fraction, CALF, which measures how much arable land is actually cropped, and Maximum Vegetation Condition Index, VCIx, which assesses local yield on a scale from 0 (“same as lowest ever”) to 1 (“same as highest ever”). 

For the countries that produce 80% of the worlds main cereals, VCIx reached 0.86 on average. The lowest values occur in Iran (0.51), Pakistan (0.67), Australia (0.67), Kazakhstan (0.67), South Africa (0.68) and China (0.70). High values occur in south-east Asia, Brazil (0.97) and some countries of the above-mentioned “Baltic” group (Poland, 1.00 and Ukraine, 1.04). The average CALF variation reaches +3%. The worst performers for the current reporting period include Kazakhstan (-45%), Canada (-11%) and Australia (-7%), thus including two of the main global wheat exporters. At the high end we find Ukraine (+13%), Iran (+14%), Pakistan (+16%) and Uzbekistan (+63%). Area increase will somehow compensate yield drops in three countries: winter wheat in Iran (CALF +14%, VCIx 0.51) and in Pakistan (+16%, 0.67) and summer crops in Argentina (+8%, 0.71). It is not known at this stage, however, to what extent the “compensation” will ensure satisfactory production.

China

Generally, the Northeast and Inner Mongolia regions do not have any crops in the field at this time of reporting because temperature is climatically too low for winter crops. Hibernating winter wheat is present in all other regions, so that current water supply (as rain or snow) will eventually benefit crops after the winter dormancy phase. 

China recorded crop conditions that were rather different from those of the same ONDJ reporting period of the previous cropping season: RAIN -5% (versus +7% in 2016-17), TEMP -0,3°C (Vs. +0.7°C) but the RADPAR deviation was identical, reaching -12% during both seasons. In 2017-18 sunshine was particularly poor in the Lower Yangtze region (RADPAR -18%).   Agroclimatic conditions were mostly unfavorable in China so far for the winter crops.  At the sub-national scale, rainfall was significantly above average in Huanghuaihai, Inner Mongolia and Loess region whereas the Lower Yangtze and South-West China experienced the largest deficits. Rainfall was close to average in North East China and Southern China.

At the end of January, CropWatch satellite indices assess crop condition as average in about 62% of croplands, mainly located in the northeast and southwest. 9% of croplands (in the southeast) were generally below average.  CALF declined by 3% compared to the average of the previous five years (5YA). BIOMSS (+7% over the 5YA) was above average in almost all sub-national regions of China except in the Lower Yangtze region and Southwest China. In contrast, CALF was below average in most regions of China except in the Loess region. Uncropped arable lands are mainly located in the northern parts of Gansu and Shaanxi province, Shanxi province, Hebei province, central and southern Henan province, and northern Anhui province. 

The VCIx values  (0.5-0.8) occurred in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, the Loess region and Huanghuaihai, and Xinjiang province. Values larger than 0.8 occur in other parts of China and follow a pattern that is highly consistent with those of uncropped and cropped arable land.

Compared with previous years, the incidence of pests and diseases was relatively large during the 2017/18 winter in the main wheat regions of China. Record temperature and rainfall forecasts for the 2018 spring may result in pest and disease more serious damage  than previous years

Chinese grain imports are projected to increase in 2018, particularly for Maize (+16.9% over 2017), while soybean imports will increase only slightly in 2018.

Southern hemisphere production

The production outlook for the current bulletin includes only the major producers in the southern hemisphere, as assessments for the northern hemisphere would be too hypothetical at this early stage in the season. 

For Argentina, CropWatch puts the winter wheat production at 11.080 million tons, a significant drop of 4.7% below the previous year’s value, resulting from the combined decrease of yield (-1.6%) and cultivated area (-3.2%). In Australia, the drop in wheat production reached 22.1% with 24.606 million tonnes output. Again, poor climatic conditions are to blame in a mostly semi-arid setting which has demonstrated huge variability in the past. In Brazil, the smallest, but also the most dependable wheat producer in the hemisphere, production reached 7,876 million tonnes, up 4% over 2016-17. In South-Africa, the current seasons output is estimated by CropWatch at 1.356 million tonnes, corresponding to a drop of 20.4% compared with the previous season. Drought, the main factor behind the poor performance of South African wheat is likely to take it’s toll on the current maize summer crop as well.