The main crops of Australia are wheat and barley, which are planted mainly from May to July and harvested from October to January. The monitored time period thus covers the harvest of wheat and barley in Australia. Based on spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, the harvest started in October. At that time, the crop condition in Australia was below average. To be more specific, the south-eastern part of New South Wales and north-eastern part of Victoria show poor crop conditions, accounting for about 25% of the cropped land of Australia. The South-western part of West Australia and south-eastern South Australia also show partly below average condition in October, accounting for about 39.5% of the cropped land of Australia. The VCIx below 0.5 confirms the condition in the regions mentioned above. The NDVI returned to average later but that average is "post-harvest" as crops are no longer in the field. The CALF decreased by 7%, compared to the last 5 year average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions (agro-ecological zones, AEZ) can be distinguished for Australia, which are relevant for crops cultivation. They include the Southeastern wheat zone, Southwestern wheat zone, Wet temperate and subtropical zone, and Subhumid subtropical zone. 

The crop condition in the Southeastern wheat zone, especially in the north part showed below average crop condition at the start of the harvest in October. It is possibly due to 22% excess rainfall and 5% lower radiation with a higher temperature of about 0.6℃. Most of the VCIx lies in the range below 0.5. Furthermore, the CALF has decreased by 13%. Below average production is likely.

The crop condition in the Southwestern wheat zone shows basically average situation in this period of harvesting. The region received 6% above average rainfall and 2% below average RADPAR,  with average TEMP. The VCIx is in the range of 0.5-0.8 and 0.8-1.0 for most of the region. The CALF there increased by 8% and good output is expected.

The crop condition in Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone shows partly below average crop condition at the time of harvest from October. It is possibly due to the deficit in rainfall of 8% and low RADPAR (- 4%). The VCIx is in the range of 0.5-0.8 and 0.8-1.0 for most of the region. The CALF there underwent a small increase of 2%. Average to good output is expected here as well.

The crop condition in the Subhumid subtropical zone, especially in the southern part was below average in October. Furthermore, CALF dropped significantly (27%) and VCIx of only 0.42, indicating poor yield and production for this AEZ. An average crop is unlikely.

On the whole, with the cropped arable land decreased by 7.2% and yield decreased by 16.1% in Australia, CropWatch forecasts a production drop of 22.1% for wheat and barley in 2017.

Figure 3.6. Australia crop condition, October 2017 - January 2018

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                        (c) Maximum VCI

 (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI profiles

 (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southeastern wheat zone (left) and Southwestern wheat zone (right))

 (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semi-arid zone (left) and Wet temperate and subtropical zone (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone)

Table 3.5. Australia October 2017 - January 2018 agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.6. Australia  October 2017 - January 2018 agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA

Table 3.7. Australia CropWatch-estimated wheat production for 2017 (thousand tons)