The current reporting period covers the growing season for Aman rice and field preparation and early growth of Boro rice and wheat crops. Although October to January is off-monsoon season, the country received 364 mm of rainfall, which exceed average by 63%. At 22.4°C TEMP was 0.4 °C cooler than average and conducive to crop growth. RADPAR was 11% below average but it has probably not seriously affected the irrigated dry season at a time when cloudiness is low.   A 69% higher than 5YA BIOMSS accumulation was indicated, which is corroborated by NDVI remaining above 5 year average. CALF shows a marginal increase of 0.3% but VCIx of 0.95 indicates good crop condition. All the above factors indicate good prospect for crops except for Aman rice at its maturity/harvesting stages.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh comprises four agro-ecological regions, which are the Coastal region, the Gangetic plains, the Hilly region and the Sylhet basin.

The Coastal region recorded heavy rainfall of 446 mm (76% higher than average) and the temperature of 22.7 °C was marginally lower than average. RADPAR down by 12% is probably of marginal significance as sunshine is high during the "dry" season which lasts approximately from December to February. Following high rainfall BIOMSS at 1118 gDM/m2 is 74% higher than expected, which is corroborated by higher than average NDVI throughout the period except the last observation. CALF has shown no change but VCIx of 0.95 indicates good crop condition for Boro rice and wheat. There may have been some problem for Aman rice at maturity and harvesting due to higher rainfall.

The Gangetic region received abundant rainfall of 493mm (+54%) with 21.8 °C temperature and 7% below average RADPAR, leading to  65% above 5YA  BIOMSS. Initially NDVI was lower than average but picked up in November and remained higher later on indicating good crop growth. CALF and VCIx both have been favorable. Overall condition is very good for Boro rice as well as wheat.

The Hill region too received high rainfall of 493mm (+46%) and relatively cool temperature of 22.5 °C (-0.7 °C) but RADPAR was low by 7.5%. BIOMSS is still estimated at 1174 gDM/m2 (+63%). It is supported by consistent high NDVI throughout the period, except the last observation (it could be cloud contamination, as no adverse condition is observed). Nearly 99% of crop planted area and equally good VCIx of 0.95 confirm the possibility of good harvest of both crops.

The Sylhet basin too received high (+78%) rainfall, 22.2 °C temperature but -12% RADPAR. Still BIOMSS of 852 gDM/m2 corresponds to a 75% increase over average; NDVI remained average during the period. Crop planted area has not changed and VCIx of 0.89 does not indicate so good crop prospect for Boro rice and wheat as in other regions. Aman may have been affected by excess moisture at the time of  maturity.

Overall Bangladesh is expected to have good harvest of Boro rice and wheat, discounting some adversity to Aman rice during maturity and harvesting stage due to high rainfall. It  will be important to watch weather for remaining period of Boro rice and wheat crops.

Figure 3.7 Bangladesh Crop condition, October 2017- January 2018

a) Phenology of major crops

b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         c) Maximum VCI

d) Spatial distribution of NDVI compared to 5 YA                              e) NDVI profile                 

Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Coastal region (left) Gangetic plain (right))

Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hills (left) Sylhet basin (right))

Table 3.8 Bangladesh agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 15YA (October 2017-January 2018)<See my comment below>

Table 3.9 Bangladesh agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 5YA (October 2017-January 2018)