This bulletin covers the harvest of maize in northeastern Brazil and wheat in late December., as well as the sowing of season maize, soybean and rice. 

Generally, crop condition in Brazil was favorable compared to the same period in the previous five years. According to the CropWatch Agroclimatic Indicators, weather conditions were close to average. As a whole country recorded average rainfall (722 mm) and temperature (26.3 degree). Together with -4% below average radiation, BIOMSS was 1% above the previous five years average. However, agro-climatic conditions differs significantly from state to state especially for rainfall. RAIN departures by state ranged from -13% to +44%. Minas Gerais, Rio Grande Do Sul, Goias, and Mato Grosso experienced below average rainfall, with -13%, -10%, -10% and -8% negative departures, respectively. It needs to be highlighted that in the major producing state of Parana RAIN reached 1118 mm, the highest departure in the country (44% above average). Other states including Sao Paulo, Ceara, Santa Catarina, and Mato Grosso Do Sul also received favorable rainfall with 5%, 12%, 15% and 31% above average, respectively. Temperature departure from average was generally negative except in Ceara where TEMP was average (+0.4 degree). Sufficient rainfall in Ceara, Santa Catarina, Mato Grosso Do Sul, and Parana benefited crops and resulted in positive BIOMSS departure.  

According to the nation-wide NDVI profile for Brazil, crop condition was below average from October to December and caught up with the 5YA and the previous year in January. Spatial and temporal patterns of crop condition during the monitoring period are shown in the NDVI departure clustering map. The eastern coastal regions are the only area that presents above average conditions throughout the monitoring period. Most areas of southern Brazil experienced overall average condition. Crop condition in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso Do Sul and Goias was below average but exceeded average from early January due to favourable precipitation. The Nordeste was the only area where crop condition was below average in January 2018. The national average maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) value for Brazil was 0.97 during the monitoring period.  The VCIx map also presents values above 0.8, indicating good conditions nation-wide. Values below 0.5 appear only in the southern part of Rio Grande Do Sul and Nordeste regions because of water shortage. Most arable land in Brazil are cultivated. Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) reached 97%, 2% above 5YA. 

Wheat production for Brazil is revised at 7876 ktons, 4.4% up compared to that in 2016-2017 season, but 244 ktons down from the previous production estimate issued by CropWatch last November. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones are identified for Brazil. These include the Amazonas, Central Savanna, Eastern coastal zone, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Mato Grosso, Nordeste, Parana basin, and Southern subtropical rangelands. Over the recent reporting period, only two zones (Northeastern mixed forest and farmland and Parana basin) received above average rainfall. RAIN in all other six zones were below average, ranging from -6% in Mato Grosso and -25% in Southern subtropical rangelands. The deficit region is part of a larger problem area in the south of the continent (refer to Chapter 1) Considering the crops calendar, this bulletin will focus on all zones except Amazonas.

Conditions were well below average in the Southern subtropical rangelands during the monitoring period, with 25% below average RAIN and average TEMP and RADPAR. Shortage of rainfall resulted in 10% below average BIOMSS. CALF at 100% nevertheless indicates that all cropland is cultivated. NDVI profiles confirm the drought stress: crops in this zone are well below five-year average condition. The VCIx map shows lower values compared with other zones.

The Paraná Basin zone is the major wheat producing area of the country. Agroclimatic conditions were overall above average, with RAIN at +11% and BIOMSS at +5%. CALF at 100% indicates that almost all cropland is cultivated. Favorable agro-climatic conditions in the zone benefitted crops and resulted in VCIx close to 1.0 (0.97). NDVI development profile indicates that crops are reaching their peaks and NDVI is above 5YA. 

Adverse weather conditions in the Nordeste resulted in unfavorable crop condition. The region received the least rainfall compared to other zones, 11% lower than average for the monitoring period. Lack of rainfall hampered the crop development. As indicated by the NDVI development profile, NDVI has been below 5YA average since Oct. 2017 but still slightly above the previous year. VCIx for the zone was just 0.74 and CALF was just 62%, well below that of other zones.

The Mato Grosso zone covers the states of Mato Grosso and Rondônia, as well as a northern part of Mato Grosso do Sul. Maize and soybean are at early development stages in the region. Agro-climatic conditions over the reporting period were close to average with 6% below average RAIN and average TEMP and RADPAR.The zone recorded 919mm rainfall which is beneficial for summer crops development. The NDVI profile over cropland reflects below average conditions before January and almost caught up with the 5YA in January 2018. Almost all cropland is cultivated and VCIx is 1.0, which confirms the favorable crop condition.

Rice in the Northeastern mixed forest and farmland zone is currently at sowing. Agro-climatic conditions were generally above average with RAIN at 9% above average and BIOMSS at 5% above 5YA. Abundant rainfall during the monitoring period provided sufficient water moisture for the crops after sowing. 

In the Eastern coastal zone, the sowing of rice is still on-going. Generally below average crop condition due to shortage of rainfall (492mm rainfall, 13% below average) is confirmed by the 5YA NDVI crop development profile. 

The major output from Central Savanna zone is not crops but rangelands and meat, which makes the region important in terms of food security. Overall unfavorable climatic conditions dominated the area (RAIN, -13% and BIOMSS 5% below 5YA). Nevertheless, vegetation condition is still at 5YA average according to the NDVI development profile.

Figure 3.8. Brazil crop condition, October 2017 to January 2018

Figure 3.8a. Brazil phenology of major crops

Figure 3.8b. Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Brazil

Figure 3.8c. Brazil maximum VCI for July-October 2017 by pixel

Figure 3.8d. Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and (e) the corresponding NDVI departure profiles

Figure 3.8f. Condition development graph based on NDVI for Southern subtropical rangelands

Figure 3.8g. Condition development graph based on NDVI for Parana basin

Figure 3.8h. Condition development graph based on NDVI for Nordeste

Figure 3.8i. Condition development graph based on NDVI for Mato Grosso

Figure 3.8j. Condition development graph based on NDVI for Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

Figure 3.8k. Condition development graph based on NDVI for Eastern coastal zone

Figure 3.8l. Condition development graph based on NDVI for Central Savanna

Table 3.11. Brazil agro-climatic indicators by AEZs, current season's values and departure from average, October 2017 to January 2018 

Table 3.12 Brazil agronomic indicators by AEZs, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2017 to January 2018

Table 3.13 CropWatch-predicted wheat production for Brazil in 2017-2018 (thousand tons)