The current reporting period covers the harvest of summer crops, and the sowing of winter wheat in Canada. Most agricultural areas were covered in snow from November, limiting the relevance of NDVI-based indicators.  

Rainfall was 18% above average, which increased soil moisture storage for winter wheat. The temperature was average and radiation was slightly below average (-4%), with a the maximum VCI value was 0.74. The potential biomass accumulation index was slightly above the recent five-year average (BIOMSS, +5%). 

In Manitoba (RAIN, -7%) and Saskatchewan (RAIN, +16%), two of the three main production provinces, the drought which lasted for the last 3 reporting periods is basically over, and the potential biomass was almost equal to the average of last 5 years (BIOMSS, Manitoba -4%; Saskatchewan 2%).

As a result, the overall condition of crops in Canada would be good due to the rainfall. The production is expected to be better than during 2017 if the favourable conditions continue.

Regional analysis

The Prairies (area identified as 32 in the VCIx map) and Saint Lawrence basin (34, covering Ontario and Quebec) are the major agricultural regions. 

In the Prairies, the main food production area in Canada, rainfall was above average (122mm or +9%), the temperature was average while the radiation was slightly below (RADPAR, -4%). The potential biomass was slightly above the five-year average (BIOMSS, 3%). Probably because of snow, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction dropped significantly (CALF, -22%) , the VCIx was 0.66, and the NDVI was largely below the average from November to December, while it was slightly better than the last five years in January. The crop production of 2018 could be favourable if good weather continues.

In the Saint Lawrence basin region, rainfall was above average (428 mm equivalent to +16%), the temperature was average and radiation was slightly below (RADPAR, -2%). Both the potential biomass and Cropped Arable Land Fraction were slightly above the average (BIOMSS, 4%; CALF, 1%), while the VCIx was 0.97. Based on the similar NDVI profiles to the Prairies, the agro-climatic indicators, especially the rainfall, indicate favourable crop prospects when compared to the last several years.

Overall, after the end of the drought, the outlook for wheat production is favourable. 

                                                              (a) Phenology of major crops

                (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                           (c) Maximum VCI

                        (d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (e) NDVI profiles

              (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

Table 3.14. October 2017 - January 2018 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.15.  October 2017 - January 2018 Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA