The reporting period includes the late stages and the harvest of summer crops, mostly maize and rice, potatoes, sugar cane, sugarbeet and fiber crops, and the planting and early vegetative stages of winter wheat.

The recorded rainfall was 36 mm, down 35% below 55mm, the average of the period; TEMP (17.8°C) was about average but radiation was 760 MJ/m2,  -5% below average, which is significant for a variable and a location that normally shows little variation. Since all crops are irrigated RAIN usually plays a negligible part  in the determination of yields (refer to the average rainfall above, which is sufficient to cover about 20 days of crop water consumption during the present cool season), but sunshine is the main limiting variable. In fact, rainfall in the Highlands of East Africa is more relevant to Egyptian agriculture than local precipitation.  

The nation-wide crop development graph based on NDVI shows that the condition was slightly below the 5 years average. NDVI profile maps provide additional detail: only about 6% of summer crops were below average at the time of harvest. In January, which covers wheat and many winter vegetables, NDVI increased above average everywhere. VCIx is difficult to interpret as the period covers two cropping seasons, but values are nevertheless fair with the  VCIx for the whole country at 0.8. The condition of the current winter crop is assessed as fairly good.

Regional analysis

Egypt can be subdivided into three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based mostly on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions. Only two of them are relevant for crops: the Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip (37), and the Nile Valley (38). They are identified by their numbers  in the maximum VCI map.

The Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip zone experienced agroclimatic conditions close to those of the country as a whole. In contrast, the rainfall in Nile Valley zone reached 94 mm, an increase of 73% compared with average. While the amounts involved are small, they nevertheless correspond to about 20 days of crop water requirements, and they are free. Therefore, rainfall has an economically and agronomically beneficial impact on rainfed crops. This appears in the rise of the BiOMSS index (39% over 6YA) but may be negativeley affected by the RADPAR drop (3%) compared to the last 15YA. As a result, the BIOMSS has increased (39% above 5YA).

The Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for both zones indicates below average condition, especially in the Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip zone in October.  

Based mostly on the VCIx value and CALF variations (Nile Valley: 0.98 and +8%; Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip zone: 0.81, +3%, respectively), CropWatch assesses crop condition in the Nile Valley AEZ as more favorable than in the north of the country.  

Figure 3.11. Egypt crop condition, October-Jan.2018.

                                                            (a). Phonology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                      (c) Maximum VCI

          (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip AEZ (left) and Nile Valley AEZ (right)).

Table 3.20.Egypt agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October-Jan.2018.

Table 3.21.Egypt agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October-Jan.2018.