The monitoring period includes mainly the harvesting period for Meher maize, wheat and the preferred cereal, teff. Severe drought occurred most of the eastern part of the country with deficits as high as 58% below the average. Similarly, temperature was between 1°C and 2°C below average. Coupled with average RADPAR, most of the country experienced reduced biomass expectations. According to the spatial NDVI profiles, 31% of the cropped area experienced worse conditions compared to the average.  Despite persistent drought the CALF remained almost constant at 100%. Some parts of northern, eastern and south eastern regions recorded poor wheat crop condition with VCIx ranging from less than 0.5 to around 0.8.

Regional Analysis

The main rain-fed cereal producing areas include the South eastern mixed-maize zone (46) of Oromia and Dire Dawa, Harari, Western mixed maize zone, (50) and Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone (40) including Addis Ababa, Amhara, and Tigray.

The south eastern mixed-maize zone (46) suffered severe drought (RAIN 69 mm) which is about 58% less than average. TEMP reduced by about 0.9°C, while RADPAR increased by 6%. The highest reduction in biomass (BIOMSS -52%) was recorded in this zone; it results from the combination of water shortage and increased water demand. Crop output is expected to be poor.

The western mixed maize zone recorded better rain than the previous one (RAIN 139mm) although it was still 22% short compared with average. BIOMSS was equally higher despite being 19% less than the average. The CALF of the south-eastern mixed-maize and the western mixed maize zones increased by 1%.

The CALF in Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone fell 1%. Central Amhara, the main teff and wheat producing area, high NDVI values of above 0.8, although RAIN was reduced by 37%, with average RADPAR. BIOMSS dropped 35% below average.

Overall, the drought effect on biomass production was evident across the regions and below average or just average crops can be expected.

Figure 3.12. Ethiopia crop condition, October 2017 - January 2018

                                                                   (a) Phenology of major crops

                               (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI\

                            (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                             (e) NDVI profiles 

                     (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-east mixed-maize region

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western mixed-maize region (left) and Central northern maize highlands region (right))

Table 3.22. October 2017 – January 2018 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.23. October 2017 – January 2018 Agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA