During the monitoring period, the harvest of maize was completed by December. Winter wheat was also harvested from October to December . Compared to average, CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that the conditions were unfavorable. This includes the following: a 30% drop in RAIN, about average temperature, and a marked drop (7%) in RADPAR at the national level. Also at the national level, crop condition was below average, which is confirmed by a significant decrease for the BIOMSS indicator (-20%). 

As shown by the crop condition development graph, national NDVI values were mostly below those for the five-year average, but close to 2016 from July to November. The national NDVI values began to drop rapidly below their 2016 equivalent in December, which is consistent with the lack of rainfall during this period. The spatial NDVI patterns compared to the five-year average and corresponding NDVI departure cluster profiles further indicate that NDVI is above average in 54.7% of arable land, with below average NDVI in the other regions.

This spatial pattern is reflected by the maximum VCI (VCIx) in the different areas, with a VCIx of 0.84 and a negative CALF departure (-0.8%) for France overall. Generally, due to the rainfall deficit, the agronomic indicators mentioned above show unfavorable condition for some crop areas of France. In the next few months, more rain is needed for the winter wheat areas.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, additional sub-national detail is provided for eight agro-ecological zones. They are identified in the maps by the following numbers in the VCIx map: (54) Northern barley zone, covering the regions of Île-de-France, Picardie, and Nord-Pas-de-Calais; (58) Mixed maize/barley and rapessed zone (Centre, Pays-de-Loire, and Poitou-Charentes); (55) Maize barley and livestock zone (Basse Normandie, Bretagne, and Haute Normandie), (56) Rapeseed region (Alsace, Bourgogne, Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comté, and Lorraine); (51) Dry Massif Central zone (Auvergne, Limousin, and NWRhone-Alpes); (57) South-western maize zone (Aquitaine and Midi-Pyrenées); (52) Eastern Alpes region coinciding with the Rhône-Alpes region, and (53), the Mediterranean region (Languedoc-Roussillon and Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur). 

In the Northern barley zone,RADPAR is 9% and TEMP is 1.0°C below average, respectively, while RAIN is 3%above. As a result of the increase of rain, the BIOMSS indicator is only 1% below the five-year average. High VCIx values (0.98), however, are observed, reflecting overall favorable crop condition.

The most severe adverse weather conditions were observed in the Mixed maize/barley and rapessed zone  (RAIN -52%) even if other indicators remain close to average. According to the NDVI profiles, crop condition has been continuously deteriorating since October. BIOMSS is 41% below its five-year average, and the VCIx value of 0.79 for the region is low in the country.

Generally, crop condition for the Maize, barley and livestock zone is close average, in spite of climate conditions being poor (RAIN -22%, TEMP -1.4°C, and RADPAR, -10%). Almost all arable land in this region was cropped during the monitoring period, and the average VCIx is 0.91. The NDVI profile confirms the favorable conditions with above average NDVI since October.

The Rapeseed region also had below average rainfall (RAIN, -16%). Temperature was average, but sunshine was very low (RADPAR, -12%). According to the NDVI profile map and VCIx map,crop condition was good in the region. Overall, the situation is considered to be close to average.

Mostly unfavorable climatic conditions dominated the Dry Massif Central zone over the reporting period. Rainfall was 36% below average (207 mm over four months). Temperature was normal, but radiation (RADPAR) was well below (-11%). 

In the South-western maize zone rainfall decreased 33% below average, temperature was average, but radiation was well below expectations (RADPAR -6%). Crop condition was below average according to the NDVI development graph, an observation confirmed by the decrease of BIOMSS by 21% compared to average. The VCIx map, however, shows that the crop condition was favorable, with a high VCIx value recorded for the region as a whole (0.91),resulting from irrigation.

With the Mediterranean area, the Eastern Alpes region was one of the wettest in France (302 mm over four months),representing however below average values for both RADPAR and TEMP; BIOMSS for the region is 18% below the five-year average, and a low VCIx value reflects the generally unfavorable crop condition. That overall crop condition is unfavorable compared with the previous five years is further confirmed by the crop condition development graph.

Finally, severe adverse weather conditions were observed in the Mediterranean region (RAIN -46%) even if other indicators remain close to average. According to the NDVI profiles, crop condition has been continuously deteriorating since October. BIOMSS is 26% below its five-year average, and the VCIx value of 0.51 for the region is the lowest in the country.

Figure 3.13 a. France phenology of major crops

Figure 3.13 b. France national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-January 2017-2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum VCI

Figure 3.13 d. France spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles(right).

Figure 3.13 f. crop condition development graph based on NDVI.Northern barley zone (right) Mixed maize/barley and rapessed zon (left)

Figure 3.13 h. Maize barley and livestock zone (France) crop condition development graph based on NDVI(right)

Rapeseed zone (left)

Figure 3.13 j. crop condition development graph based on NDVI.Dry Massif Central zone (France)(right)  South-western maize zone(left)

Figure 3.13crop condition development graph based on NDVI.Eastern Alpes region(France) (right)Mediterranean zone(France(left)

Table 3.26. France agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October -January 2017-2018 

Table 3.27. France agronomicindicatorsby sub-national regions, current season's value and departurefrom5YA, October -January 2017-2018