The current bulletin covers the growing and maturity period for Maize, Kharif rice and Soybean, whereas it was sowing and early growth for winter wheat. It coincides with the end of the summer monsoon in the country. Country received 147 mm rainfall (+4%), temperature remaining about 22.1°C (avrage) and RADPAR of 937 MJ/m2 (-5%).

The period not being main rainy season, 13 states mostly in the peninsular and eastern parts received above average rainfall. At the same time 13 states falling in central and northern parts were deficient in rainfall. TEMP was above average in Assam and Meghalaya (1°C), Sikkim and Nagaland (both 1.3°C), Himachal Pradesh (2.6°C) and Uttarakhand (2.7°C). On the other side Bihar (-0.9°C), Daman & Diu (-1°C) were cooler, while rest of the country recorded near average temperature. RADPAR deficient states include Assam, Daman & Diu, Gujarat, Goa, Orissa, Mizoram and Puducherry (all -6%), Kerala,Punjab and Rajasthan (each -7%), Haryana (-8%), Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Meghalaya (each -9%), Jharkhand and Tripura (-10%) and West Bengal (-12%). Values were close to average elsewhere.

The slightly below average nation-wide BIOMSS estimate (-5%) results from above average in most of the southern states (Assam, Daman and Diu, Gujarat,Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Orissa, Puducherry, Tripura and West Bengal), and relatively low values in northern states where Bihar, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal, Madhya PradeshRajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand are experiod a BIOMSS drop below average of 40% and more.

NDVI for the country followed the average line or stayed a little lower but dropped during January. NDVI clusters show initially low values but pick up during January in the northern part of the country.  CALF of 90% indicates low cropped area coverage while VCIx of 0.93 indicate average yield prospects.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts the following Agro-ecological zones for India: the Deccan plateau, the Eastern coastal region, the Gangetic plains, the North eastern region, the Western coastal region, the North western dry region and the Western Himalayan region. Crop assessments for six of the seven regions are presented here.

The Deccan plateau region received 67mm of rainfall  (-13% compared to average), 23.1°C (-0.7°C)  and 988MJ/m2 of RADPAR resulting in BIOMSS of 210gDM/m2, a sharp decline (21%) below average. NDVI profile followed the 5YA line till December but fell in January. Coupled with a CALF value of 98% and VCIx of 0.97, the indicators imply average prospects for Kharif rice, maize, soybean and wheat outputs.

An average rainfall of 300mm was received in the Eastern coastal where TEMP was average and RADPAR was -4% below average, resulting in a biomass production potential of  674gDM/m2. The NDVI profile started above 5 year maximum in October and closely followed the 5YA thereafter. With 98% of potential area being cropped and VCIx at 1.05 in most parts of the region indicate good to excellent prospect for Kharif and Rabi rice crops.

The Gangetic plains region too received low rainfall of only 59mm (-34% below average); temperature was close to average but RADPAR was markedly below (-10%). The estimated biomass accumulation potential was very low at 161gDM/m2. NDVI has remained low throughout the reporting period. Initially it was just below average but it dropped in January, though one of the NDVI observations appears to be cloud contaminated. Thus, overall condition for Kharif rice as well as wheat can be called below average.

The Assam and north eastern region was among the high rainfall areas with 313mm (58% higher than average), close to average temperature (0.8 °C up) and deficient RADPAR  -6%, resulting in a high BIOMSS accumulation of 759gDM/m2. NDVI was higher than the 5 year maximum in the beginning of the reporting period. It slightly dipped in November to recover in January again crossing the 5year maximum. It has continuously oscillated, but except for January 2nd Dekad, always remained higher than average. CALF (95%) and VCIx (0.97) indicate average to good prospects for Kharif, Boro rice and wheat.

Among the listed AEZs, the third highest rainfall (250mm, 16% above average) was recorded for the Western coastal region, which had average TEMP and a 5% drop in RADPAR. This resulted in a low biomass accumulation potential (570gDM/m2), but still 4% higher than 5YA. NDVI has remained higher than 5YA thoughout the period. With CALF at 99% and VCIx at 1.01 the crop condition can be considered good for Maize, Kharif as well as Rabi rice.

Rainfall exceeded average by 31% in the North-western dry regionl, with temperature remaining near average and RADPAR being 6% below; higher than average (+28% of 5YA) BIOMSS is expected. NDVI remained as low at 0.3 till November, improved in December, but again showed a decline towards end of January. Similarly, only 61% of the potential agricultural area was cultivated regional VCIx was 0.77. Large patches even display VCIx values at or below 0.5, indicating poor prospects for Soybean as well as wheat crops.

Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators reveal favourable crop condition in the Southern half of India and the North-eastern regions. The Northern part appears to have undergone much less favourable conditions and crop production are at best average.

Figure 3.16 India crop condition, October 2017- January 2018

                                                               a) Phenology of major crops

b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     c) Maximum VCI

d) Spatial NDVI patterns compered to 5 YA                     e) NDVI profiles

f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) Eastern Coastal Region (right)) 

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangetic Plains (left) Assam and North Eastern Region (right))

h)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Coastal Region (left) North Western Dry Region (right))

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Himalayan Region)

Table 3.35 India agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 15YA (October 2017-January2018)

Table 3.36 India agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 5YA (October 2017-January 2018)

Note:

I have corrected the CALF value