In Iran, crop condition was generally below average from October to early December 2017. It recovered to above average until early January 2018, and dropped again, sharply so in late January due to a snowstorm in Iran’s western and northern parts. The planting of winter wheat has been completed, while it was still underway for barley in late January. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN, -16%) was below average over the last four months, and  temperature was above (TEMP,+1.0°C); radiation was close to average. The unfavorable agroclimatic conditions resulted in a significant decrease in the BIOMSS index by 19% compared to the five-year average. The national average of maximum VCI index for this monitoring period was rather low at 0.51, while Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 14%. 

According to the national crop condition development graphs, crop condition was close or below average in most of Iran's crop areas accounting for 65.9% of total arable land during the monitoring period. About 24% of croplands, mainly in Ardabil, East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan provinces of the northwest region, experienced favorable crop condition from the end of November. The crop condition in Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan provinces stayed close to average in October, above from November to December, and then dropped to below average at the end of January 2018. 

Overall, the crop condition is mixed in the current season. The final outcome of the season will be determined by soil moisture in March when vegetative grows will resume.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains.

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, the accumulated rainfall (RAIN) was 10% below average, temperature (TEMP, +1.1°C) was above average, while radiation was close to average during this monitoring period. The water shortage due to low rainfall resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 14% compared to the recent five years average. The average CALF (9%) and VCIx (0.54) were both low in this monitoring period. According to the NDVI profiles, the crop condition change was comparable to national values. The crop condition is very mixed so far. 

Crop condition in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region was below average. The region received only 60 mm rainfall, 67% below average for this report period. The unfavorable rainfall resulted in a significant drop of BIOMSS by 56%. The continued rainfall deficit was also the main factor behind the low CALF (9%) and poor VCIx (0.50). Therefore, the outcome for winter crops of this region is estimated to be poor. 

Figure 3.17a Iran phenology of major crops

Figure 3.17b. Iran national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the October 2017-January 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.17c. Iran maximum VCI for October 2017-January 2018 by pixel

Figure 3.17d. Iran spatial NDVI patterns for October 2017-January 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right) 

Figure 3.17e. Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

Figure 3.17f.  Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (Iran) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.38. Iran agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2017-January 2018

Table 3.39. Iran agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, October 2017-January 2018