This monitoring period covers the harvesting of last year’s summer crops (cereals, spring barley and wheat) from October 2017 to January this year. The national average VCIx was just 0.67, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 45% compared to the five-year average. The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators were average (RAIN +2%, RADPAR +3%, TEMP -0.4°C).  BIOMSS is expected to increase by +5% compared to the five-year average at the national scale. Overall crop prospects are unfavorable.

As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop condition was slightly below average from late November to December in most parts of the country. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that the crop condition was above average from late October to late December in 87% of croplands, including Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, Akmola, East Kazakhstan, north eastern part of Karagandy and south eastern part of Zambyl. However, NDVI fell below the 5YA average from late December to late January. No crop was planted since November and from December the NDVI index has been close to zero. Crop condition was generally unfavorable in Kazakhstan during the reporting period.

Regional analysis

The following paragraphs provide additional detail for four major agro-ecological zones (AEZ) of Kazakhstan, referred to as the Northern zone, the Eastern plateau and southeastern zone, the Southern zone and the Central zone. 

In the Northern zone, crop condition was below the five-year average from late December to late January. The average VCIx was 0.60. RAIN and TEMP were below average (by -2% and -0.3°C, respectively) and RADPAR was above average (4.4%),  resulting in a minor increase of the BIOMSS index (4%). CALF significantly decreased by 55% compared to the recent five-year average. The NDVI profiles for the region were consistently below average.Overall, the outcome for the crops in the region is unfavorable.

The Eastern plateau and southeastern zone displayed NDVI above the five-year average in at the beginning of November and from late October to late January. The average VCIx was 0.70. RAIN and TEMP were slightly below average (-1% and -0.7°C), but RADPAR was above the average (+2%). The agroclimatic indicators also resulted in an decrease of the BIOMSS index by 2%. The cropped area decreased by 29% compared to the five-year average.  Overall crop prospects are unfavorable.

In the southern zone, NDVI was generally above the five-year average from late October to late November and in January. NDVI was significantly below the average from late November to late December. The average VCIx was 0.90 in this region. RAIN was well above average (+50%), while TEMP  were slightly below (-0.4°C) and RADPAR was below average (3%). The agroclimatic conditions resulted in a BIOMSS decrease of 2%. CALF also significantly increased by 79% compared to the five-year average. Overall,the outcome for the crops is considered favorable in this region.

In the central zone, crop condition was below the five-year average in November and late December. The average VCIx was 0.70. RAIN was above average (by 42%) and TEMP and  RADPAR was slightly below average, resulting in a minor increase of the BIOMSS index (25%). CALF significantly decreased by 18% compared to the recent five-year average. The NDVI profiles for the region were consistently below average.Overall, the outcome for the crops in the region is unfavorable.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(left)           NDVI profiles (right)

(e) Crop condition development graph based onNDVI Northern region (left) (f) eastern and southeast region (right)

        (g)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI South region (left) (h) Central region (right)

Table 3.41. Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicatorsby sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2017 - January 2018

Table 3.42. Kazakhstan, agronomic indicatorsby sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2017 - January 2018