At the beginning of the reporting period, the north of the country harvested the very last millet and sorghum crops while the south harvested the main season maize.The second maize and irrigated rice crop were still growing, to be harvested early in 2018. 

Overallclimatic conditions were unfavorable for the whole country, where the agroclimatic indicators show a high reduction in rainfall (RAIN -26%). The temperature was relatively cool (TEMP 1.2ºC below average) and sunshine was lower than expected (RAPDAR -6% compared to average. The combined effect is a reduction in the potential biomass index of 27%. The cultivated arable land fraction (CALF) also dropped 4% below the recent five-year average and the maximum vegetation condition index VCIx reached 0.86. Low values of VCIx were observed in the Sudano Sahelian region, especially in Sokoto, Borno, and Yobe states, while favorable values occurred over most other parts of the country.

The nation-wideNDVI development graph and the NDVI clusters show that crop condition was generally well below the average of the recent five years. 

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Nigeria is divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ). They are referred to (from north to south) as Sudano-Sahelian, Derived savanna, Humid forest zone, and Guineansavanna.

The Sudano-Sahelian region underwent a drop in rainfall and sunshine (RAIN -19% and RAPDAR -3%), while the temperature departure was positive. The biomass in this region decreased 38% and cropped arable land fraction (CALF) fell 16% below the recent five-year average. The maximum VCIx reached 0.79. The west and the north-east of the region enjoyed average conditions.

Contrary to the other AEZs, in the Derived savanna region, the Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) did not register any changes compared to the recent five-year average. The BIOMASS index was 28% below average and VCIx was 0.9. All agro-climatic indicators were below average (RAIN -34%, TEMP -1.1ºC, RAPDAR -8%)

Below average values of all agro-climatic and agronomic indicators were also verified in the Humid Forest region (RAIN -13%, TEMP-0.9ºC, RAPDAR -14% and BIOMASS -10%, CALF -1% and VCIx was 0.89.

The Guinean Savana recorded the largest RAIN and BIOMASS deficits (48% and 49%, respectively) together with cooler than average temperature (TEMP -1.4ºC) and lower sunshine (RAPDAR -4%). The VCIx was 0.89.

Figure 3.22. Nigeria crop condition, October 2017-January 2018

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI        (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         NDVI profiles

(e) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Sudano-Sahelian region (left) and  (f) Derived savanna zone region(right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and Humid forest zone region (left) and (h) Guinean savanna region (right))

Table 3.53. Nigeria agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.54. Nigeria, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2017