The Reporting period covers maturity and harvesting of summer/monsoon (kharif) maize and rice, and the sowing and  early growth of winter (rabi) wheat. At 36mm rainfall was well below average (-48%). However, October to December is the driest part of the year in a country where the vast majority of crops are irrigated. As such, the deficit did not seriously impact crops. Temperature (14.9°C) was average and RADPAR (833MJ/m2) was below. The combination of all the agroclimatic indicators resulted in very low (-38%) estimate of BIOMSS of only 118gDM/m2 but, as mentioned this is not dramatic at this time of the year.  The water deficit probably accounts for NDVI remaining low throughout the period and below the 5YA. The country achieved marginally higher CALF (15.9% of 5YA), but a low VCIx of only 0.67. However, the outcome of the rabi season will largely depend on conditions later this year, from March onward. 

Regional analysis

Country limits extend from the sea to the Himalaya and cover a large agro-ecological amplitude. CropWatch adopts our Agro-ecological zones (AEZ) for Pakistan, namely: Balochistan, the Lower Indus river basin, the Northern highlands and Northern Punjab. Since only 2 million Ha are cultivated in Balochistan, the region is not covered below. 

Nationwide, the Lower Indus river basin received the lowest rainfall (14mm) during the reporting period. Both temperature and RADPAR were lower than average (marginally so for TEMP: -0.4°C), which resulted in potential BIOMSS of only 64gDM/m2 (-24% of 5YA) which is irrelevant, since most of the area is irrigated. NDVI was low initially, but has improved in January month attaining average values. Potential cropped area reached 66% VCIx was at 0.87. Current below average crop prospect for wheat will critically depend on spring weather conditions and irrigaton water availability.

Highest rainfall (61mm) was received in Northern highlands, 49% below the average for this region which relies mostly on irrigation in two patches in the centre (Mardan, Charsada and Peshawar) and south (Bannu and Lakki Marwat). Other agroclimatic indicators like temperature (10.9 °C) being warmer than average (+0.9°C) and RADPAR of 763MJ/m2 (2% below average) resulted in the highest BIOMSS of 234gDM for any region. It is still lower than the average for this region. NDVI was low in the begining of reporting period but improved in November. The cropped potential occupied area (32%) and VCIx (0.58) during the period possibly indicate a shift in wheat crop sowing. The area will be important to watch.

The lowest rainfall (-60%) was recorded for North Punjab region, the main agricultural area in Pakistan. Temperature (17.3°C) was average but the sunshine had a marked deficit (RADPAR, -6%). The resulting  estimate of BIOMSS (107gDM/m2) was (-55%) below average. The NDVI remained low throughout the period, though continuing to increase with time. The potential cropped area of 77% with low VCIx (0.77) could be due to delay in sowing of wheat due to low rainfall. The area being fully irrigated, poor crop performance is unusual. The low rainfall and NDVI profile justify the close monitoring of the area later in the season.

At best, the overall condition of rabi wheat for the country looks average but further monitoring is required. 

Figure 3.23 Pakistan crop condition, October 2017- January 2018

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile                                                      c) Maximum VCI

d)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       e) NDVI profile

f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Balochistan Non-agricultural Region (left) Lower Indus River Basin (right))

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highlands (left) Northern Punjab (right))

Table 3.56 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 15YA (October 2017-January 2018)

Table 3.57 Pakistan agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 5YA (October 2017-January 2018)