During the monitoring period, the sowing of winter wheat was delayed but nevertheless completed before November. Cropped arable land increased by a spectacular 7% compared to the last five-year average. Like parts of the Central Europe to Western Russia MPZ, the weather in Russia was warmer than average (0.9°C above). The rainfall departure was +9% above average and the RADPAR was -6% lower.The BIOMASS also increased 4% due to the favourable weather condition. 

As shown in the NDVI crop condition development graph for the country, values follow those of  last year and the recent five-year average  from july to December, and exceed them in January due to the warm and rainy climate condition. In most parts of Southern Urals and the Southern Siberian area including almost 60% croplands of Russia, the NDVI was significantly lower than average from last December due to the snow cover. Crop condition was generally favorable in most parts of Russia’s croplands. Compared with the previous season, winter wheat yields are expected to increase (VCIx=0.86).

Regional analysis

A more detailed analysis is provided for seven agro-ecological zones (AEZ), namely the Kaliningrad oblast(94), the Caucasus (95), the Volga Basin (97), the Central Economic Region (100), the Southern Urals (99), the Southern Siberian area (98), and the Northwest region including Novgorod (101). The numbers correspond to the labels on the VCIx map.

In the Caucasus, Central Economic Region (CER),  Kaliningrad oblast, Northwest region including Novgorod and Volga Basin regions indicator patterns are close to the national ones, i.e. weather conditions were favorable for winter crops. Rainfall was abundant and spatially variable from +4% in Volga Basin to +67% in the Kaliningrad oblast and the positive temperature deviation varied from 0.8°C to 1.3°C. The NDVI values in those areas (see the map of spatial NDVI patterns) were higher than usual from July. In the Central Economic Region and Kaliningrad oblast, the excess of rainfall was significant (+36% and +67%, respectively) and accompanied by warm temperature. The BIOMASS was higher than expected (7% and 10%). The listed AEZs show CALF values that vary from 65% (Volga Basin) to values close to 90% or well above (86% in CER to 100% in the north-west region with Novgorod. Fair production can be expected.  

Unlike most of Russia, the Southern Siberian area  and Southern Urals regions experienced a shortage of rainfall (RAIN 13% and 35% below average, respectively), with BIOMSS  both decreasing 7% accordingly. NDVI also decreased in these two regions, and CALF is low at 45% in the first and 59% in the second. Agricultural output will be negatively affected.

Figure 1. Russia phenology of major crops

Figure 2. Russia national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the October-January 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3. Russia maximum VCI for October-January 2018 by pixel

Figure 4. Russia spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 5. Kaliningrad oblast crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 6. The Caucasus crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 7. Volga Basin crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 8. Central Economic Region crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 9. Southern Urals crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 10. Southern Siberian area crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 11. Northwest region including Novgorod crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 1. Russia agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October-January 2018

Table 2. Russia agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October-January 2018