The analysis period coincides with the maize planting and early development season in the eastern part of the country. According to NDVI clusters, the general condition of the crops was below average following rainfall deficits during the planting and slightly afterwards.The Eastern maize regions of Kwa-Zulu Natal and Mpumalanga areas had a VCImax between 0.5-0.8.  Overall production is likely to be less than the previous year’s in some areas if drought conditions persist. Compared to last year’s good rains, the current season so far shows a slightly less than average condition. Nonetheless, the CALF is generally stable with no significant reduction in the Humid Cape Fold Mountains and the Dry Highveld and Bushvelds zones. A 30% below average reduction in CALF with a corresponding 33% reduction in Biomass were observed. Temperatures had dropped slightly across the entire growing areas. RADPAR was average or slightly below average.

Regional analysis

The analysis covers three agro-ecological zones (AEZs): Mediterranean wheat zone (147), Humid Cape Fold Mountains zone (146), and Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize zone (148).

The period was planting period for summer crops (maize, spring wheat and soya beans) except in the Mediterranean wheat-growing zone which has reached maturity as observed from its VCImax of 0.21. Most of the region suffered a high rainfall deficit (RAIN -44%) and a 30% reduction in CALF.

The Dry Highveld and Bushveld zones, the main maize producing area received 18% below average rainfall and 3% increment in RADPAR, and a 20% reduction in biomass NDVI clusters confirm the slightly below average conditions experienced in the zone.

In the Humid Cape Fold Mountains, there was a 2% increment of RAIN, and 3% increment in CALF, with good crop condition as depicted by VCImax of 0.85.  BIOMSS is just 5% below average.

Overall, the crop condition in the growing area is fairly average. Should droughts set in, vegetative growth might be affected.

Figure 3.34. South Africa crop condition, October 2017 - January 2018 

(a) Phenology of major crops

  (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

  (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Humid Cape Fold Mountains)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mediterranean wheat zone (left) and Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize zone (right))

Table 3.89.October 2017 – January 2018 Agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions,current season's values and departure from 15YA

Table 3.90. October 2017 – January 2018 Agronomic indicators bysub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA