During the monitoring period, maize and rice were harvested and the planting of winter wheat was completed.

The national NDVI profiles showed that the crop condition was below the 5YA average mainly in October and November, but it was above at the end of December and throughout January. As shown by the NDVI clustering map,  crop condition was close to or above average during the entire reporting period in some parts of Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland zone and small parts of Southeast Anatolia. This result indicates favorable crop condition in these two areas. However, in most parts of Central Anatolia and Eastern Anatolia, NDVI was below or close to average. These results are consistent with the patterns illustrated by the VCIx map. Over the reporting period, Turkey experienced a 13% rainfall deficit and 2% radiation drop, while the country was average for temperature compared with average. The biomass was close to average and CALF was up 7%. The national average VCIx was 0.88 during the reporting period, indicating  average crop condition in the whole country.  The crop output is estimated to be favorable in  Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland region, but mixed or unfavorable in other regions.

Regional analysis 

The regional analysis includes four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia  and Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland zone.

In the Black Sea zone, crop condition was poor. The NDVI profiles indicate that NDVI was below 5YA mainly in the first two months of entire reporting period, while it was close to the average in January. The Black Sea region was short in rainfall with a 10% drop in RAIN, suffered a radiation deficit (RADPAR, -3%) while temperature (TEMP, +0.9℃) and the biomass production potential (BIOMSS,+1%) were average. The CALF decreased by 3%, and the maximum VCI (VCIx) value was 0.88. As a result of the low RAIN and inadequate sunshine, CropWatch estimates  that the crop production prospects are mostly unfavourable.

Central Anatolia also shows below average condition according to the regional NDVI profile. The region suffered a RADPAR drop of 2% and low CALF (CALF,-9%). The RAIN was average and the TEMP was slightly above (+0.9℃). The BIOMSS was close to 5YA and the VCIx was the same as in the Black Sea zone. As mentioned earlier, the crop condition was not very promising in this zone. 

Very low NDVI values (sometimes as low as 0.05) in Eastern Anatolia shown in the NDVI profiles result mostly from snow at high elevation. This zone experienced a shortage of RAIN (-10%) and RADPAR(-3%), while the TEMP was above average(1.8℃).  The VCIx in this zone was 0.69. The CALF was only 9%, significantly decreased by 33% compared to five years average, indicating a very low cropped area.  At this stage, it is difficult to assess the situation in  Eastern Anatolia due to the winter conditions.

As indicated by the NDVI profile, crop condition was below average in October, November, and December in the Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland zone. It improved in January . The AEZ recorded mildly above average TEMP (+0.6℃) and average RADPAR. The BIOMSS was 8% below average, while the CALF gew by 23% indicating an increase in cropped land. The VCIx was 1.01, indicating a favorable crop condition. CropWatch estimates the production prospects for the AEZ as favourable.

Figure 3.29. Turkey crop condition, October 2017-January 2018

(a)Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right)) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.74.Turkey agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2017-January 2018.

 Table 3.75. Turkey agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departurefrom 5YA, October 2017-January 2018.