Summer crops have been harvested and winter crops (winter wheat, winter barley, and rapeseed) have been planted during the current reporting period. The agroclimatic indicators show that rainfall for the country was slightly above average (RAIN +8.1%), with well below average radiation (RADPAR, -8.4%) and temperature (-1.9°C). Due to below average radiation and low temperature, the BIOMSS on the national scale decreased only -11% compared to the five-year average. As shown by the national crop condition development graph, NDVI values were below average almost thought the winter season. The NDVI profile clustering provides additional spatial detail.  In 51.9% (24.4%+27.5%) of the croplands NDVI was average or above throughout the season,  with a drop just below average in about half of the area at the very end of January. This situation occurred in and around the following general areas: Somersetshire to Kent, Salop, west Yorkshire to Notinghamshire and, in Scotland, Fyfe and east Tayside. Below average conditions from October or at least from late November affected 48.2 % of croplands (15.5%+32.7%) betteen south-east Wales (Mid- Glamorgan and Gwent) and Cambridgeshire and Essex in England, as well as East Grampian in Scotland. Conditions are very mixed from Lincolnshire to the eastern part of North Yorkshire, which is mostly confirmed by VCIx distribution, the average national value of which (0.89) is fair. Prospects for winter crops are currently mixed but not unfavourable.  

Regional analysis

CropWatch has adopted three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) to provide a more detailed spatial analysis for the country; they include the Central sparse crop region (covering northern England, Wales, and Northern Ireland), the Northern barley region (Scotland and northern England), and the Southern mixed wheat and barley region (southern England). The Northern barley region and the Southern mixed wheat and barley region are characterized by unchanged fractions of cultivated arable land (CALF) compared to average. In the Central sparse crop area CALF decreased by -9.7%. 

In the Central sparse crop region NDVI values were below the five-year maximum according to the region's crop condition development graph in October to January. Agroclimatic conditions were: RAIN +14%, well below average temperature and sunshine (TEMP -1.9°C, RADPAR -11%). The VCIx was low at 0.10.

In the northern barley region, NDVI was below average according to the crop condition graphs. Agroclimatic conditions were: RAIN +20%, below average TEMP (-2.3°C), and rather poor sunshine (RADPAR -12%). The regional VCIx (0.92) was well above average.

Crop condition was below average in southern mixed wheat and barley zone. Dry conditions prevailed, with a 10% decrease of rainfall below average, average temperature, and a significant drop the sunshine (RADPAR, -5%); the biomass production potential decreased by 10% compared to the recent five-year average. The regional VCIx (0.88) indicates about average crops.

(a). Phenology of major crops

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI       (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central sparse crop region (left) and Northern Barley region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley region)

Table 3.29. United Kingdom agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.30. United Kingdom, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2017