During the current monitoring period Ukrainian farmers harvested maize and planted winter wheat which is currently overwintering. 

Rainfall was satisfactory (RAIN, 226 mm, +18%) but accompanied by a very significant RADPAR deficit (-13%), while at 3.3℃ temperature was above average by 1.4℃. Agronomic indicators also showed a very good maximum vegetation condition index (VCI, 1) and an increase in crop arable land fraction (CALF, +13%) compared to 5-year average. At national level, the crop condition development graph was close to or above the 5YA until late January, when snow led to low NDVI.  According to the VCIx and NDVI spatial distribution maps, very favourable crop condition occurred in about 65% of Ukraine, mostly in the west and the centre. BIOMSS is expected to increase by 8% above average. Winter crop prospects are favourable.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, reports in four agroecological zones are provided: Central wheat area (118), Northern wheat area (119), Eastern  Carpathian hills (120), and Southern wheat and maize area (121).

The Central wheat area includes Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad oblasts. Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators suggested favorable conditions: 18% higher rainfall, 1.5℃ higher temperature, 12% higher CALF and good VCIx (1) for wheat development over this period, which was also confirmed by generally higher NDVI profiles compared to  5-year average. Overall, projected biomass was 16% higher than 5-year average.

The Northern wheat area covers Rivne, Zhytomyr and Kiev oblasts. The crop condition in this area also showed an above average situation in rainfall (RAIN, +19%), temperature (TEMP, +1.4℃) and high CALF (99%) indicating that nearly all arable land is cutivated. Despite low radiation (RADPAR, -9%), near or above average NDVI confirms good  biomass potential (BIOMASS, +14%).

The Eastern Carpathian hills consist of Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts.  This area received substantial rainfall (RAIN, +53%), higher temperature (TEMP, +1.3℃) but rather low radiation (RADPAR, -16%). Considering the high fraction in crop arable land  (CALF, 90%) and VCIx (0.93), the estimated biomass for this region is 15% higher than 5-year average but prospects are less favourable than in the previous AEZ.

The southern wheat and maize encompasses mainly contains Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. This is the only area where biomass is predicted to decrease (BIOMASS, -4%) due to a deficit in rainfall (RAIN, -18%). Other indicators were normal or better than average, for instance, temperature was slightly higher (TEMP, +1.4 ℃). CALF significantly increased by 29% and VCIx reached 1.17, which were favorable for crop. Due to contradictory indicators, the area will need close monitoring during the next reporting period. 

Figure 3.30a. Ukraine phenolgy of major crops

Figure 3.30b. Ukraine national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April- July 2017 period to the previous season and five-year average (5YA) and maximumFigure 3.30c.  Ukraine maximum VCI for October 2017-January 2018 by pixel

Figure 3.30d.  Ukraine spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.30f. Cenntral wheat area (Ukraine) crop condition development graph based on NDVI Figure 3.30g. Northern wheat area (Ukraine) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure 3.30h. Eastern Carpathian hills (Ukraine) crop condition development graph based on NDVIFigure 3.30i. Southern wheat and maize area (Ukraine) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.76. Ukraine agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  October 2017-January 2018

Table 3.77. Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA,  October 2017-January 2018