The reporting period covers the sowing and early development stages of winter wheat, the most important cereal crop in Uzbekistan. Crop output may be below average because in spite of good crop condition (the national average VCIx was 0.95), the fraction of cultivated arable land fraction decreased by 45% compared to the five-year average. However, the decreased CALF can also result from snow cover on cropland. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN was below average (-7%), and TEMP and RADPAR above average. The combination of the factors resulted in decreased BIOMSS (-11%) compared to the five-year average. 

Regional analysis

For the regional analysis, additional detail is provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the cereals zone (east), the cotton zone (Aral sea, west) and the central zone.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, NDVI  was generally below the five-year average from October to January. RAIN was 22% below average, but TEMP and RADPAR were slightly above (0.4°C and +2%, respectively). The agroclimatic indicators also include a decrease of the BIOMSS index by 25%. The maximum VCI index was 0.95.  Crop prospects are fair. 

The Aral sea cotton zone grows only few winter crops. Crop condition was below average. Accumulated rainfall was about five times the average during the monitoring period (RAIN +197%), radiation was above average (RADPAR 1%), while temperature (TEMP -0.2°C) was just below. The agroclimatic indices for the current season indicate favorable weather conditions for crop growth, which is confirmed by the significant increase of the BIOMSS index by 65% compared to its five-year average. The regional average of the VCIx was 0.98. Overall prospects for the area are favorable and will mostly benefit rangelands and the planting of irrigated summer crops.

During the present monitoring period NDVI was generally below the five years average in the Central region. NDVI was above last year's value only late November. Accumulated RAIN was 124% above average, but TEMP and RADPAR were close to average (-0.1°C and +2%, respectively). The agroclimatic indicators also include an increase of the BIOMSS index by 18%. The regional average of the VCIx was 0.77. 

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based onNDVI   (c) Maximum VCI

    (d) Spatial NDVI patternscompared to 5YA (left)     NDVI profiles (right)

(e) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Aral Sea cotton region (left) (f) Eastern hilly cereals region (right)

(g) Central region with sparse crops region (Uzbekistan) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.83. Uzbekistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2017 - January 2018

Table 3.84. Uzbekistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2017 - January 2018