Bulletin

wall bulletin
Pest and diseases monitoringChina

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: Miao

The original text in red was  Good wheat growth condition were brought about by high temperature and high humidity due to the heavy snow in winter. Meanwhile, weather conditions were also conducive to pest and disease reproduction. Moreover, record temperature and rainfall are forecast for the 2018 spring, which will provide favorable conditions for pest and disease development

This is flawed and the whole paragraph is a headake! 

The logic of the first sentence is this

Heavy snow ---(A)---> high temperature and high moisture ---(B)---> good wheat growth. 

(A) is wrong because [snow ---> LOW temperature]. Low temperature does not produce good growth and we know that the crops are dormant. Whoever is introducing snow is creating a logical mess!!! 

I am not a crop and disease expert, but I think the first (blue) sentence is wrong because we also know that pest and diseases do not develop in winter, with or without snow (except reindeer, who eat grass under the snow.) 

Two options: we ask for an explanation, or we cancel it. I suggest to cancel it and to start with the red text. It has all the info and no contradiction.

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Compared with previous years, the incidence of pests and diseases was relatively large during the 2017/18 winter in the main wheat regions of China. Crop germination and establishment took place under favorable temperature and moisture conditions that, however, were also beneficial to pest and diseases reproduction. Abundant snow then accumulated and protected dormant plants while putting an end to pest impact.  However, record temperature and rainfall are forecast for the 2018 spring, which will provide favorable conditions for the return of pests and disease. Altogether, the wheat pest and disease damage forecast for 2018 is more serious than previous years, and the total area affected by wheat yellow rust, sheath blight and aphids may reach 18.7 million hectares.

The forecast distribution of wheat yellow rust in 2018 is shown in Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1. The total area affected by the yellow rust may reached 2.5 million hectares, with the disease mainly occurring in Huanghuaihai, Loess region and Lower Yangtze, including Ningxia, Gansu, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces.

Figure 1.1 Forecast distribution of wheat yellow rust in China (2018)

Table 1.1 Statistics of wheat yellow rust forecasts in China (2018)

Region

Percentage of  areas where the pest is absent or present

Absence

Occurrence

Huanghuaihai

89

11

Inner Mongolia

92

8

Loess region

89

11

Lower Yangtze

90

10

Northeast China

94

6

Southern China

99

1

Southwest China

92

8

Wheat sheath blight (Figure 1.2 and Table1.2) is predicted to damage around 7.3 million hectares in 2018, with the disease mainly occurring in Huanghuaihai and Lower Yangtze, including Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces.

Figure 1.2 Forecast distribution of wheat sheath blight in China (2018)

Table 1.2 Statistics of wheat sheath blight forecasts in China (2018)

Region

Percentage of  areas where the pest is absent or present

Absence

Occurrence

Huanghuaihai

68

32

Inner Mongolia

75

25

Loess region

70

30

Lower Yangtze

70

30

Northeast China

81

19

Southern China

91

9

Southwest China

79

21

In 2018, wheat aphids (Figure 1.3and Table 1.3) are expected to affect around 8.7 million hectares, with the pest mainly occurring in Huanghuaihai, Loess Region and Lower Yangtze, including Gansu, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu and Heilongjiang provinces.

Figure 1.3 Forecasting distribution of wheat aphids in China (2018)

Table 1.3 Statistics of wheat aphids forecasting in China (2018)

Region

Percentage of  areas where the pest is absent or present

Absence

Occurrence

Huanghuaihai

63

37

Inner Mongolia

63

37

Loess region

66

34

Lower Yangtze

63

37

Northeast China

62

38

Southern China

60

40

Southwest China

66

34