OK: 03:00:23 CST Thursday, 15 February 2018

Grain imports and exports in China in 2017

Rice

In 2017, the total import of rice in China was 4.0252 million tons, an increase of 13.0% compared to the previous year. The imported rice mainly stems from Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan, respectively accounting for 56.3%, 28.5%, and 6.8%. The corresponding expenditure reached US$1860 million. Total rice exports over the period were 1196,500 tons, mainly to the Côte d'Ivoire, Republic of Korea, and Turkey (25.8%, 14.0%, and 6.2%, respectively). The value of the exports was US$597 million.

Wheat

Wheat imports reached 4452,500 tons, an increase of 29.6% over 2016. The main suppliers were Australia, the United States, and Canada, accounting respectively for 43.1%, 35.2%, and 11.8%. Imports amounted to US$ 1083 million. Korea (44.7%) and Hong Kong (43.4%) were the main destinations of the exports, which reached to 182600 tons for a value of US$85 million.

Maize

The country imported 2.8252 million tons of maize (down by 10.8% year-on-year) for a value of US$ 600 miilion. The main sources include Ukraine (64.5%) and the United States (26.8%). Maize exports went to Korea (60.0%), Japan (23.5%), and the Netherlands (6.8%). The value of exports was US$19.9133 million.

Soybean

The total volume of soybean imports was up by 14.8% to 95,536,600 tons. Brazil, the United States, and Argentina respectively contributed 53.3%, 34.4%, and 6.9%, for a total value of US$3973,600 million. Soybean exports were 113,900 tons, down 11.2%.

Import prospects for major grains in China for 2018

Based on the latest monitoring results, China grain imports are projected to increase. The projections are based on remote sensing data and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which is derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).

Rice

According to the forecast, rice imports and exports will increase by 9.7% and 20.4% respectively. Due to the increase of rice production in 2017, the loose global market supply and demand, the decreasing trend of international rice prices, and the price differences at home and abroad, rice imports in 2018 will maintain their growth momentum within the quota range.

Wheat

Wheat imports and exports are forecast to increase by 10.6% and 26.9% respectively. At present, the global wheat production slightly increased, and the global supply and demand is in a relaxed pattern. But the persistence of wheat price difference at home and abroad still exists. In 2018, wheat imports will increase slightly, while exports increase rapidly.

Maize

Maize imports are projected to increase by 16.9% in 2018, but export will decrease by 8.5%. Due to the slackening global supply and demand of maize, the trend of falling prices, the sorghum “double reverse” investigation, and the expanded price differences at home and abroad, maize imports are expected to increase while exports decrease.

Soybean

The model foresees increasing imports (up 4.7%) while exports will be reduced by 3.3%. With abundant soybean supply in the world, China's soybean imports will remain at a high level. However, under the impetus of the structural adjustment policies for planting, the space for the growth of imported soybean will narrow. It is estimated that the soybean imports will increase slightly in 2018.

Figure 4.18. Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2018 compared to those for 2017(%)