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Next to the reports about earthquakes – some deadly, as in Mexico, Iran-Iraq and Honduras - and volcanic eruptions – some of which required the precautionary displacement of nearby populations – and countless epidemics – from diphtheria to dengue to plague -, the salient points remain the humanitarian situation affecting the Middle-East, Myanmar and Bangladesh and, in Africa, most of the Sahel including Mauritania, the Horn and Central Africa. Late January reports by FAO and WFP confirm that hunger continues to intensify in the war stricken zones of Africa. A MHUB document issued at the beginning of November stated that there are currently 50 million displaced children of which an estimated 28 million are fleeing their home countries due to violence and insecurity. According to a recent UNICEF report, 180 million children live in 37 countries where they are more likely to live in extreme poverty, be out of school, or be killed by violent death than children living in those countries were 20 years ago.

The most severe disasters that occurred during the reporting period include several cyclones in South-east Asia as well as floods in central and southern America, in particular in Peru. The country has been mentioned in the disaster analyses throughout 2017, starting with the disastrous Putumayo floods which also affected neighbouring Ecuador, Colombia and Bolivia. Out of close to 600 disaster reports examined to prepare the present note, 86 (15%) mention floods in various locations in Peru.

Tropical cyclones, depressions and storms of various severities

Hurricanes Maria and Irma were reported on in the November 2017 CropWatch bulletin. However, additional detail is provided below because more complete information is now available and because countries and their agricultural sector sometimes struggle for years before they recover, as was highlighted in previous bulletins about the impact of hurricane Matthew in Haiti (September-October 2016).

Maria touched Dominica on 18 September, few days after Irma hit the island on 6 September. Irma was very long lived and eventually turned east and died off the northern European cost after having brought about damage for about 64 billion US$. Maria is the 10th strongest storm on record (the strongest in the Atlantic) and it is considered to have been the worst natural hazard-induced disaster on record in Dominica; it also caused widespread damage in other Caribbean islands (about 40 died) , particularly in Puerto Rico. In Florida, the damage to the agricultural sector amounts to 2.5 billion US$. The total damage brought about by Maria reaches 92 billion US%.

In relative terms, the losses due to Maria were heaviest in Dominica, which was directly on the track of the cyclone. The total damage in the cuntry is now estimated at 1.3 billion US$, equivalent to more than double the Islands GDP. About one third of the damage occurred in agriculture, the sector which suffered one of the largest damages, just after housing and before tourism, which is the mainstay of the economy. The livestock and animal production sector suffered very heavily as country-wide losses include cattle (45% lost), pigs (65%), small ruminants (50%), broiler chickens (90%), layers (90%), rabbits (50%), and beehives (25%). An estimated 65% of coconut trees, 80% of cocoa trees and 80% of citrus trees were damaged. Four months after the disaster, over 80% of houses still have inadequate roofing, one child in six has not returned to school and the vast majority of islanders has no electricity. According to ACAPS the hurricane severely damaged farm housing, irrigation infrastructure, feeder roads, livestock production, forest reserves, and fishing boats. Although emergency replanting of food crops took place immediately after the disaster, about one third of the population is still borderline food insecure, according to the WFP.

Other tropical cyclones and storms include Damrey (or Ramil in the Philippines), Otto in the Caribbean basin, Ockhi in the Indian Ocean, Kai-tak (Urduja in the Philippines; 13 to 23 December), Tembin (Vinja in the Philippines) from 20 to 26 December, Agaton (Bolaven) at the beginning of January, Ava (Madagascar, early January)

Damrey prevailed from 31 October to 4 November in the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand, causing about 1 billion US$ damage. About 40 people died but overall losses were limited in the agricultural sector except in Vietnam. More than 125,000 hectares of rice and vegetables were destroyed and aquaculture was severely affected, with 133,000 hectares of shrimp farms flooded and over 70,000 aquaculture cages swept away. The Government of Vietnam estimates the economic loss to be 630 million US$.

Otto (20-26 November) was one of the rare recent cyclones that originated in the Caribbean and then crossed the central-American land bridge along the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border and eventually died in the Pacific. Since tropical cyclones are powered by the condensation of moisture evaporated from the sea, they cannot survive over land. Otto nevertheless caused about 200 million US$ damage in the three affected countries: Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

Ockhi developed in the Indian Ocean and moved from the southern tip of Sri Lanka to north-west India between 30 November and 6 December, also affecting the Maldives. Total damage is in excess of 5 billion US$ with about 500 casualties. Most damage to agriculture is reported from Gujarat

Figure 1: Impact of tropical storm Tembin (Vinta) in Mindanao island, Philippines. Source: https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/171228_start_acaps_briefing_note_philippines_tropical_storm.pdf

Typhoon Tembin, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Vinta, affected Caroline Islands, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam between the 20th and the 26th December. Fatalities reached 266 and the total damage was put as 42.4 million US$. Mindanao was among the most severely affected areas; the island is a major agricultural region, producing more than half of the maize output of the Philippines, and about 25% of the rice. ACAPS reported at the end of December that extensive damage to agriculture has been caused by the combined effects of the storm, flash floods, and landslides. Food stocks have also been washed away or depleted. ACAPS further notes that Mindanao was badly affected by El Nino-related drought in 2016. Reports issued in January put the damage in agricultural at about 30 million US$, of which two thirds are paddy productio loss. Over 200 people lost their lives.

Floods

During the first half of November floods were reported from Costa Rica and, throughout the month from Colombia and Peru, where they led to severe and sometimes deadly landslides. Tropical depression Otto (end of November) brought floods to Panama and other central American areas. The Peruvian and Colombian floods lasted well into December, as excessive precipitation caused new floods in different areas. At the end of December, floods were also reported from Bolivia. Generally below average temperatures accompanied the floods. In January floods affected Argentina

Floods also occurred in several European countries (France, Germany, Greece, Hungary) during the reporting period and locally delayed sowing of winter crops.

Figure 2: Theewaterskloof dam, the main water supply for Cape Town, South Africa, on 8 February 2018. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-08/south-africa-plans-to-declare-drought-a-national-disaster

Drought

Early November in part of the Paraguayan Chaco, but mostly in parts of southern Africa. Rains were late in many monsoon summer rainfall areas. In Zimbabwe in late January, according to Relief Web, some farmers were close to completely writing off the season, because of the high likelihood of below-average rains for the remainder of the season. This will reduce crop yields and harvests across most parts of the country. In the western Cape province of south Africa, which enjoys a Mediterranean, Cape Town is expecting to completely shut off water supply on 14 April (dubbed “day zero”) because reservoirs that normally provide water to cities are almost empty.

Cold waves

A cold wave affected central America starting in November, lasting into January 2018. The Guatemala government had to relocate 3500 people suffering from cold at the end of December. In Morocco, about 4000 families suffered from the cold wave that set in in January.

Drought

https://reliefweb.int/report/lesotho/lesotho-key-message-update-november-2017

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-42866178/why-cape-town-is-shutting-off-its-water-supply

https://reliefweb.int/report/zimbabwe/zimbabwe-key-message-update-january-2018

Cyclones

https://www.acaps.org/country/dominica/special-reports#container-955

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irma

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria

https://www.acaps.org/country/vietnam/special-reports#container-957

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Nate_(2017)

https://reliefweb.int/report/viet-nam/aha-centre-flash-update-4-typhoon-damrey-28

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/AHA__6_Flash_Update_Typhoon_Damrey.pdf