2.7 Central Europe to Western Russia

During the current monitoring period, main winter crops in central Europe to western Russia were in the field and dormant. On average, agroclimatic indicators show favourable conditions, with a 9% increase of rainfall over average, a 0.6°C decrease in temperature and stable radiation (figure 2.6). 

The rainfall profiles of the broad middle region of central Europe to western Russia—about half of the MPZ, experienced above average rainfall during the monitored period, especially in January and March, including Ukraine (RAIN, +15%), Moldova (RAIN, +61%), Romania (RAIN, +9%), and central and southern West Russia. The maximum precipitation occurred in March when precipitation was close to 60% above average in Romania, Moldova and in the south of Ukraine. Slightly below rainfall was observed in January and February within the following regions, including the eastern part of the Western Russia (Republic of Bashkortostan and the Oblasts of Chelyabinsk and Orenburg), the southern part of Western Russia (the Kray of Krasnodar), Western Belarus and Poland. Temperature profiles displayed below average values from February to March for almost whole Western Russia, most part of Ukraine and Moldova (as much as 3.5-7°C below average, affecting 65.4% of the MPZ), which might have some negative effects on the winter crops. However, the temperature in most areas started to rise from April, and more than 2.0°C to 5.0°C above average were recorded  in western Belarus, Poland, Western Romania and western Ukraine in middle-April. 

Altogether, the biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) of the MPZ was at an average level, being 3% below the recent five-year value. Largest increases  (more than 20%) occurred in Moldova and the Kray of Stavropol in the southern part of Western Russian. According to the maximum VCI map values were above 0.8 in Poland, Belarus, Western Ukraine, Moldova and Romania. The maximum VCI was below 0.5 in most of the Western Russia, where the arable land was uncropped. For the MPZ as a whole CALF dropped 30 percentage points compared to the recent five-year average; a negative impact on production is likely.

Figure 2.6a.  Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ spatial distribution of rainfall profiles (left) and profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm) (right), January-April 2018

Figure 2.6b. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ spatial distribution of temperature profiles (left) and profiles of temperature departure from average (°C) (right), January-April 2018

Figure 2.6c. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ maximum VCI, January-April 2018

Figure 2.6d. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ cropped and uncropped arable land, January-April 2018

Figure 2.6e. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ biomass accumulation potential departure, January-April 2018

Figure 2.6f. Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ VHI minimum, January-April 2018